Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.6#307
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#297
Pace61.3#338
Improvement+1.8#65

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#190
First Shot-2.0#226
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#112
Layup/Dunks-2.3#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#150
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#213
Freethrows+1.1#107
Improvement+2.5#31

Defense
Total Defense-8.7#341
First Shot-9.1#345
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#155
Layups/Dunks-4.0#291
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#328
Freethrows+0.4#166
Improvement-0.7#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.1% 9.1% 2.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.6% 2.5% 9.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Away) - 10.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 46 - 77 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 07, 2020 30   @ Arizona L 53-96 2%     0 - 1 -28.8 -13.5 -16.5
  Dec 10, 2020 144   UC Riverside L 50-74 19%     0 - 2 -24.2 -17.2 -8.8
  Dec 14, 2020 70   @ Colorado St. L 52-91 5%     0 - 3 -29.5 -14.9 -14.9
  Dec 19, 2020 118   Eastern Washington L 64-80 14%     0 - 4 0 - 1 -14.0 -4.8 -9.8
  Dec 21, 2020 178   Texas St. L 65-70 22%     0 - 5 -6.4 +0.7 -7.7
  Dec 22, 2020 335   @ Denver W 68-65 59%     1 - 5 -8.9 -4.9 -3.7
  Dec 28, 2020 1   @ Gonzaga L 58-88 0.4%    1 - 6 -4.7 -5.1 -0.4
  Dec 31, 2020 338   @ Idaho W 78-65 59%     2 - 6 1 - 1 +1.0 +0.5 +0.8
  Jan 02, 2021 338   @ Idaho W 83-78 OT 59%     3 - 6 2 - 1 -7.0 -1.5 -5.8
  Jan 07, 2021 267   Idaho St. L 69-73 44%     3 - 7 2 - 2 -12.0 -0.6 -11.8
  Jan 09, 2021 267   Idaho St. L 70-76 44%     3 - 8 2 - 3 -14.0 +7.1 -22.3
  Jan 14, 2021 156   @ Montana L 56-67 14%     3 - 9 2 - 4 -8.8 -0.4 -10.8
  Jan 16, 2021 156   @ Montana L 59-71 11%    
  Jan 21, 2021 186   Montana St. L 66-72 32%    
  Jan 23, 2021 186   Montana St. L 66-72 32%    
  Jan 28, 2021 208   Northern Colorado L 64-69 38%    
  Jan 30, 2021 208   @ Northern Colorado L 63-71 20%    
  Feb 04, 2021 215   @ Sacramento St. L 60-67 21%    
  Feb 06, 2021 215   @ Sacramento St. L 60-67 21%    
  Feb 11, 2021 289   Portland St. L 72-73 55%    
  Feb 13, 2021 289   Portland St. L 72-73 54%    
  Feb 18, 2021 179   @ Weber St. L 66-76 15%    
  Feb 20, 2021 179   @ Weber St. L 66-76 16%    
  Feb 25, 2021 189   @ Southern Utah L 69-78 17%    
  Feb 26, 2021 189   Southern Utah L 70-76 35%    
Projected Record 7 - 18 6 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.8 0.9 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.9 7.1 2.5 0.1 16.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 8.6 9.9 3.9 0.3 25.3 9th
10th 1.7 7.5 13.5 10.6 4.0 0.4 37.6 10th
11th 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.5 11th
Total 2.6 9.1 17.0 20.7 19.3 14.9 8.9 4.6 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 26.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0
11-9 1.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 26.5% 26.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 0.7% 0.7
10-10 2.1% 2.1
9-11 4.6% 4.6
8-12 8.9% 8.9
7-13 14.9% 14.9
6-14 19.3% 19.3
5-15 20.7% 20.7
4-16 17.0% 17.0
3-17 9.1% 9.1
2-18 2.6% 2.6
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%