Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#201
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#224
Pace66.0#266
Improvement+2.8#38

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#223
First Shot+1.2#150
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#318
Layup/Dunks-1.9#247
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#64
Freethrows+1.1#111
Improvement+2.3#47

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#189
First Shot-1.7#225
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#117
Layups/Dunks-3.3#272
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#4
Freethrows-0.3#198
Improvement+0.5#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.8% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 44.2% 57.1% 24.9%
.500 or above in Conference 64.6% 77.2% 45.8%
Conference Champion 7.0% 10.0% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.1% 1.7% 0.3%
First Round2.7% 4.1% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 59.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 43 - 8
Quad 48 - 511 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 14, 2020 20   @ Colorado L 45-81 5%     0 - 1 -19.8 -21.2 +1.9
  Dec 16, 2020 326   @ Denver W 83-75 76%     1 - 1 -2.4 -3.1 +0.0
  Dec 18, 2020 45   @ Utah St. L 50-63 8%     1 - 2 -0.1 -7.0 +5.2
  Dec 22, 2020 277   Idaho St. W 69-64 72%     2 - 2 1 - 0 -4.1 -5.3 +1.4
  Dec 23, 2020 277   Idaho St. L 56-71 72%     2 - 3 1 - 1 -24.1 -21.6 -2.3
  Jan 02, 2021 163   @ Montana W 64-62 33%     3 - 3 2 - 1 +3.6 -1.0 +4.8
  Jan 04, 2021 163   @ Montana L 54-56 33%     3 - 4 2 - 2 -0.4 -13.3 +12.8
  Jan 07, 2021 182   Montana St. L 67-79 51%     3 - 5 2 - 3 -15.2 -6.1 -8.8
  Jan 09, 2021 182   Montana St. L 74-76 OT 51%     3 - 6 2 - 4 -5.2 -1.4 -3.7
  Jan 14, 2021 338   @ Idaho W 74-54 80%     4 - 6 3 - 4 +8.1 +2.3 +7.8
  Jan 16, 2021 338   @ Idaho W 75-61 80%     5 - 6 4 - 4 +2.1 +1.1 +2.0
  Jan 21, 2021 136   Eastern Washington W 78-76 38%     6 - 6 5 - 4 +2.3 +4.1 -1.8
  Jan 23, 2021 136   Eastern Washington L 76-82 38%     6 - 7 5 - 5 -5.7 -3.3 -2.0
  Jan 28, 2021 301   @ Northern Arizona W 68-64 60%    
  Jan 30, 2021 301   Northern Arizona W 70-62 79%    
  Feb 04, 2021 191   @ Southern Utah L 72-74 37%    
  Feb 06, 2021 191   @ Southern Utah L 72-74 37%    
  Feb 11, 2021 214   Sacramento St. W 65-62 64%    
  Feb 13, 2021 214   @ Sacramento St. L 63-64 41%    
  Feb 16, 2021 70   @ Colorado St. L 64-77 10%    
  Feb 25, 2021 262   Portland St. W 72-67 71%    
  Feb 27, 2021 262   Portland St. W 72-67 70%    
  Mar 04, 2021 155   @ Weber St. L 68-73 28%    
  Mar 06, 2021 155   @ Weber St. L 68-73 28%    
Projected Record 11 - 13 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.2 2.9 1.5 0.3 7.0 1st
2nd 0.0 2.5 6.7 2.8 0.6 0.1 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 8.3 4.3 0.4 14.6 3rd
4th 0.6 7.3 7.3 0.6 15.8 4th
5th 0.3 4.6 9.9 1.5 0.0 16.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 8.3 3.3 0.1 13.5 6th
7th 0.7 4.3 4.3 0.2 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 2.0 3.5 0.6 6.2 8th
9th 0.7 1.8 0.8 0.1 3.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.8 10.7 18.5 22.4 19.8 13.8 6.0 2.1 0.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 85.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-6 70.2% 1.5    1.0 0.4 0.1
13-7 47.8% 2.9    1.1 1.2 0.5 0.0
12-8 16.0% 2.2    0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1
11-9 0.6% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 2.6 2.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.4% 81.8% 81.8% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
14-6 2.1% 48.2% 48.2% 15.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1
13-7 6.0% 21.5% 21.5% 15.8 0.2 1.1 4.7
12-8 13.8% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6 13.3
11-9 19.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.8
10-10 22.4% 22.4
9-11 18.5% 18.5
8-12 10.7% 10.7
7-13 4.8% 4.8
6-14 1.3% 1.3
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 0.7 2.4 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%