Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#293
Expected Predictive Rating-12.8#319
Pace62.8#321
Improvement+2.8#34

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#297
First Shot-4.8#287
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#180
Layup/Dunks+0.0#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#327
Freethrows-2.7#314
Improvement+0.5#123

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#269
First Shot-3.4#288
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#169
Layups/Dunks-1.1#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#322
Freethrows+1.3#107
Improvement+2.3#32
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 4.5% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 37.3% 20.6% 39.4%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 11.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 32 - 52 - 13
Quad 44 - 76 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 230   Illinois-Chicago L 61-65 42%     0 - 1 -10.2 -8.7 -1.8
  Dec 02, 2020 302   SIU Edwardsville L 53-73 60%     0 - 2 -30.6 -24.5 -5.9
  Dec 05, 2020 73   @ Pittsburgh L 59-89 6%     0 - 3 -20.7 -4.2 -17.4
  Dec 08, 2020 137   Ball St. L 70-79 OT 21%     0 - 4 0 - 1 -8.8 -1.0 -7.9
  Dec 13, 2020 3   @ Iowa L 53-106 1%     0 - 5 -32.2 -17.6 -12.1
  Dec 18, 2020 347   Chicago St. W 64-54 90%     1 - 5 -12.2 -6.0 -4.9
  Dec 22, 2020 75   @ Toledo L 55-78 6%     1 - 6 0 - 2 -13.8 -15.9 +2.0
  Jan 02, 2021 109   Bowling Green L 42-68 16%     1 - 7 0 - 3 -23.4 -28.1 +2.8
  Jan 05, 2021 121   @ Ohio L 73-76 12%     1 - 8 0 - 4 +1.9 +3.6 -1.9
  Jan 09, 2021 205   @ Miami (OH) L 58-70 26%     1 - 9 0 - 5 -13.5 -9.2 -5.8
  Jan 12, 2021 146   Akron W 67-65 23%     2 - 9 1 - 5 +1.7 -2.4 +4.2
  Jan 16, 2021 137   @ Ball St. L 61-72 11%    
  Jan 19, 2021 121   Ohio L 64-74 22%    
  Jan 23, 2021 92   Buffalo L 67-79 17%    
  Jan 26, 2021 109   @ Bowling Green L 62-76 8%    
  Jan 30, 2021 241   Eastern Michigan L 64-66 49%    
  Feb 02, 2021 268   @ Western Michigan L 62-65 32%    
  Feb 06, 2021 246   Central Michigan L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 09, 2021 75   Toledo L 62-76 12%    
  Feb 13, 2021 115   @ Kent St. L 62-76 8%    
  Feb 16, 2021 146   @ Akron L 62-73 13%    
  Feb 20, 2021 205   Miami (OH) L 63-66 43%    
  Feb 27, 2021 241   @ Eastern Michigan L 62-67 29%    
  Mar 02, 2021 268   Western Michigan L 63-64 54%    
  Mar 05, 2021 246   @ Central Michigan L 71-75 30%    
Projected Record 6 - 19 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.3 0.8 0.1 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.2 5.3 1.7 0.2 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 5.9 7.3 2.4 0.2 16.4 9th
10th 0.5 5.8 9.5 2.9 0.3 18.9 10th
11th 0.4 5.9 10.4 3.6 0.3 20.6 11th
12th 2.4 7.8 9.6 3.2 0.3 0.0 23.2 12th
Total 2.4 8.2 16.0 20.1 20.0 15.0 10.2 4.8 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.2% 0.2
10-10 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
9-11 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
8-12 4.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.8
7-13 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.1
6-14 15.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
5-15 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.0
4-16 20.1% 20.1
3-17 16.0% 16.0
2-18 8.2% 8.2
1-19 2.4% 2.4
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.2%