Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#143
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#231
Pace72.6#100
Improvement-2.4#294

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#106
First Shot+2.2#118
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#154
Layup/Dunks+0.9#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#81
Freethrows-0.9#233
Improvement-1.6#278

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#209
First Shot-2.5#252
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#82
Layups/Dunks-1.6#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#279
Freethrows-0.3#198
Improvement-0.8#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.3% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 6.4% 11.0% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 70.7% 83.8% 58.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 0.9% 4.4%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
First Round1.7% 2.1% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 47.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 21 - 31 - 9
Quad 34 - 55 - 15
Quad 45 - 410 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 82   Western Kentucky L 87-93 29%     0 - 1 +1.0 +7.2 -5.4
  Nov 26, 2020 76   St. Mary's L 64-66 27%     0 - 2 +5.4 -0.6 +6.0
  Nov 27, 2020 52   Utah St. L 71-82 19%     0 - 3 -0.5 +1.9 -1.6
  Dec 09, 2020 59   @ Richmond L 68-78 16%     0 - 4 +1.7 -3.5 +5.6
  Dec 27, 2020 92   Missouri St. L 59-79 39%     0 - 5 0 - 1 -16.0 -12.5 -3.5
  Dec 28, 2020 92   Missouri St. W 85-75 39%     1 - 5 1 - 1 +14.0 +8.2 +5.2
  Jan 02, 2021 241   @ Evansville L 61-65 68%     1 - 6 1 - 2 -7.5 -13.5 +6.0
  Jan 03, 2021 241   @ Evansville L 64-70 68%     1 - 7 1 - 3 -9.5 -1.5 -8.9
  Jan 10, 2021 120   Bradley W 78-72 48%     2 - 7 2 - 3 +7.8 +6.2 +1.5
  Jan 11, 2021 120   Bradley L 73-75 48%     2 - 8 2 - 4 -0.2 +3.5 -3.7
  Jan 16, 2021 27   @ Loyola Chicago L 57-72 11%     2 - 9 2 - 5 -0.5 +1.1 -3.7
  Jan 17, 2021 27   @ Loyola Chicago L 46-88 11%     2 - 10 2 - 6 -27.5 -15.7 -14.0
  Jan 30, 2021 179   @ Southern Illinois W 73-72 48%    
  Jan 31, 2021 179   @ Southern Illinois W 73-72 48%    
  Feb 12, 2021 200   Valparaiso W 76-70 74%    
  Feb 13, 2021 200   Valparaiso W 76-70 74%    
  Feb 17, 2021 45   Drake L 69-77 26%    
  Feb 26, 2021 225   @ Illinois St. W 77-73 59%    
  Feb 27, 2021 225   @ Illinois St. W 77-73 59%    
  Mar 08, 2021 129   Indiana St. W 74-73 56%    
  Mar 08, 2021 45   Drake L 69-77 26%    
  Mar 08, 2021 179   Southern Illinois W 74-70 69%    
  Mar 08, 2021 241   Evansville W 72-64 81%    
  Mar 09, 2021 129   @ Indiana St. L 72-75 34%    
  Mar 09, 2021 45   @ Drake L 67-79 12%    
  Mar 09, 2021 179   @ Southern Illinois W 73-72 48%    
  Mar 09, 2021 241   @ Evansville W 71-66 62%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 10 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.2 5.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.6 7.4 4.6 1.4 0.1 18.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 7.7 9.7 4.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 25.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.8 6.2 1.8 0.1 15.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.2 4.1 1.1 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.9 8.6 12.5 15.9 16.7 14.9 11.0 7.1 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 76.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 23.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 4.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 18.4% 18.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 13.1% 12.8% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4%
15-3 1.3% 7.2% 7.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
14-4 3.5% 5.4% 5.4% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3
13-5 7.1% 4.2% 4.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.8
12-6 11.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.7
11-7 14.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 14.5
10-8 16.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 16.4
9-9 15.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 15.7
8-10 12.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.4
7-11 8.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.6
6-12 4.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 1.9% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%