Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#225
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#267
Pace64.3#300
Improvement-2.4#301

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#234
First Shot-7.3#329
After Offensive Rebound+4.9#9
Layup/Dunks-5.9#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#241
Freethrows-1.4#258
Improvement-2.4#314

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#225
First Shot+1.4#131
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#333
Layups/Dunks-0.2#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#91
Freethrows+1.3#102
Improvement-0.1#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.3% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 13.2% 22.9% 6.6%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 47.5% 42.7% 50.8%
First Four1.8% 1.7% 1.8%
First Round2.1% 2.6% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 40.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 48 - 510 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 147   Ball St. W 74-73 36%     1 - 0 +0.5 +5.3 -4.7
  Dec 03, 2020 304   Tennessee Tech W 74-65 74%     2 - 0 -1.9 -1.1 -0.5
  Dec 05, 2020 175   @ Chattanooga L 72-79 31%     2 - 1 -6.1 -4.6 -1.3
  Dec 08, 2020 75   @ Dayton L 60-66 11%     2 - 2 +3.1 -6.5 +9.4
  Dec 13, 2020 96   @ Kent St. L 73-92 15%     2 - 3 -11.9 -3.6 -7.0
  Dec 19, 2020 269   Youngstown St. W 79-64 66%     3 - 3 1 - 0 +6.6 +6.3 +2.2
  Dec 20, 2020 269   Youngstown St. L 60-70 66%     3 - 4 1 - 1 -18.4 -15.9 -3.5
  Jan 01, 2021 195   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-68 51%     4 - 4 +2.7 -2.6 +5.3
  Jan 02, 2021 195   Purdue Fort Wayne W 70-68 51%     5 - 4 -2.3 -7.5 +5.1
  Jan 08, 2021 189   @ Cleveland St. L 44-58 36%     5 - 5 1 - 2 -14.5 -19.6 +2.9
  Jan 09, 2021 189   @ Cleveland St. L 71-74 OT 36%     5 - 6 1 - 3 -3.5 -1.2 -2.3
  Jan 15, 2021 291   IUPUI L 69-74 70%     5 - 7 1 - 4 -14.7 -1.0 -14.2
  Jan 16, 2021 291   IUPUI L 63-65 70%     5 - 8 1 - 5 -11.7 -12.1 +0.3
  Jan 22, 2021 232   @ Robert Morris L 66-67 40%    
  Jan 23, 2021 232   @ Robert Morris L 66-67 41%    
  Jan 29, 2021 214   Illinois-Chicago W 66-65 58%    
  Jan 30, 2021 214   Illinois-Chicago W 66-65 60%    
  Feb 05, 2021 211   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 66-69 36%    
  Feb 06, 2021 211   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 66-69 36%    
  Feb 12, 2021 273   @ Green Bay W 71-70 49%    
  Feb 13, 2021 273   @ Green Bay W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 19, 2021 80   Wright St. L 65-74 23%    
  Feb 20, 2021 80   Wright St. L 65-74 22%    
Projected Record 9 - 14 4 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 0.8 0.1 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 2.8 0.2 4.8 5th
6th 0.8 6.2 1.0 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.5 7.3 4.8 0.1 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 7.0 11.0 0.8 19.6 8th
9th 1.0 6.5 12.6 3.0 0.0 23.0 9th
10th 2.1 8.2 11.5 5.2 0.2 27.2 10th
Total 2.1 9.2 18.8 25.2 22.2 13.8 6.6 1.8 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.2% 26.3% 26.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 1.8% 13.0% 13.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5
7-11 6.6% 11.8% 11.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 5.8
6-12 13.8% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.1 0.8 12.9
5-13 22.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6 21.6
4-14 25.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.3 25.0
3-15 18.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.8
2-16 9.2% 9.2
1-17 2.1% 2.1
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 2.4 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%
Lose Out 1.2%