Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#82
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#106
Pace67.3#242
Improvement+1.8#75

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#22
First Shot+9.2#7
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#253
Layup/Dunks-0.7#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#19
Freethrows+3.3#17
Improvement+0.3#141

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#196
First Shot-4.2#298
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#14
Layups/Dunks-0.7#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#319
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#322
Freethrows+4.2#3
Improvement+1.5#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.6% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.8% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.2 10.9 12.0
.500 or above 9.3% 16.6% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 2.5% 5.0% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 17.4% 7.8% 24.4%
First Four0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
First Round1.2% 2.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 9
Quad 23 - 55 - 14
Quad 33 - 17 - 15
Quad 42 - 09 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 40   @ Michigan St. L 70-80 27%     0 - 1 +3.1 -2.1 +6.1
  Dec 06, 2020 223   Detroit Mercy W 78-70 88%     1 - 1 +2.2 -0.6 +2.7
  Dec 08, 2020 20   Ohio St. L 85-90 29%     1 - 2 +7.6 +19.0 -11.6
  Dec 12, 2020 60   @ Kentucky W 64-63 32%     2 - 2 +12.5 +3.4 +9.2
  Dec 16, 2020 53   Duke L 65-75 42%     2 - 3 0 - 1 -1.3 +2.9 -5.4
  Dec 19, 2020 28   Purdue L 78-88 27%     2 - 4 +3.0 +15.0 -12.3
  Dec 23, 2020 228   Bellarmine W 81-70 88%     3 - 4 +4.9 +17.6 -11.5
  Dec 30, 2020 8   Virginia L 57-66 20%     3 - 5 0 - 2 +6.6 +1.7 +3.3
  Jan 02, 2021 35   @ North Carolina L 65-66 25%     3 - 6 0 - 3 +12.8 +6.4 +6.3
  Jan 10, 2021 41   @ Virginia Tech L 63-77 28%     3 - 7 0 - 4 -1.0 +1.0 -2.9
  Jan 13, 2021 8   @ Virginia L 68-80 13%     3 - 8 0 - 5 +7.2 +11.4 -5.4
  Jan 16, 2021 107   Boston College W 80-70 65%     4 - 8 1 - 5 +12.7 +7.7 +5.1
  Jan 24, 2021 93   @ Miami (FL) L 72-73 42%    
  Jan 27, 2021 41   Virginia Tech L 69-72 45%    
  Feb 02, 2021 103   Wake Forest W 78-74 68%    
  Feb 06, 2021 51   @ Georgia Tech L 71-77 27%    
  Feb 09, 2021 53   @ Duke L 74-80 27%    
  Feb 14, 2021 93   Miami (FL) W 74-71 64%    
  Feb 17, 2021 55   Clemson L 69-71 48%    
  Feb 23, 2021 37   @ Louisville L 69-76 24%    
  Feb 27, 2021 107   @ Boston College W 78-77 47%    
  Mar 03, 2021 68   North Carolina St. W 77-76 56%    
  Mar 06, 2021 14   Florida St. L 74-81 30%    
Projected Record 9 - 14 6 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.2 3.0 7th
8th 0.3 2.9 1.4 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 4.0 0.4 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 6.0 2.4 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 6.3 5.7 0.4 13.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 5.4 8.3 1.8 0.0 16.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 4.9 9.4 3.6 0.2 18.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.2 3.5 0.3 15.2 14th
15th 0.5 2.4 3.5 1.9 0.3 8.5 15th
Total 0.5 2.9 7.8 14.5 19.5 20.0 16.5 10.6 5.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.5% 60.5% 7.5% 53.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 57.3%
10-10 1.9% 24.8% 4.3% 20.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.4 21.4%
9-11 5.3% 5.8% 1.9% 4.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.0 4.1%
8-12 10.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.4 0.1%
7-13 16.5% 0.7% 0.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.3
6-14 20.0% 0.3% 0.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0
5-15 19.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 19.5
4-16 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
3-17 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.8
2-18 2.9% 2.9
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 0.5% 0.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.5 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%