Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#19
Expected Predictive Rating+17.0#15
Pace64.9#293
Improvement+3.8#19

Offense
Total Offense+10.8#6
First Shot+9.2#6
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#86
Layup/Dunks-1.5#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#49
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#84
Freethrows+5.3#2
Improvement+2.2#42

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#74
First Shot+5.0#39
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#241
Layups/Dunks+4.9#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#154
Freethrows+1.5#89
Improvement+1.6#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
#1 Seed 4.0% 5.3% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 13.9% 17.3% 6.4%
Top 4 Seed 48.5% 55.5% 33.2%
Top 6 Seed 74.2% 81.0% 59.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.3% 97.6% 90.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.9% 97.4% 89.8%
Average Seed 5.0 4.6 5.9
.500 or above 99.3% 99.8% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 74.6% 82.9% 56.5%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.8% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.8% 1.7% 5.2%
First Round94.2% 96.9% 88.5%
Second Round71.0% 75.2% 61.8%
Sweet Sixteen38.5% 41.8% 31.2%
Elite Eight17.2% 18.4% 14.7%
Final Four7.3% 8.2% 5.4%
Championship Game3.0% 3.5% 1.9%
National Champion1.3% 1.6% 0.7%

Next Game: Purdue (Home) - 68.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 7
Quad 23 - 110 - 9
Quad 33 - 013 - 9
Quad 44 - 018 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 235   Illinois St. W 94-67 97%     1 - 0 +20.5 +10.7 +7.8
  Nov 29, 2020 242   Umass Lowell W 74-64 97%     2 - 0 +3.1 -0.8 +4.1
  Dec 02, 2020 196   Morehead St. W 77-44 95%     3 - 0 +28.7 +15.0 +18.0
  Dec 08, 2020 83   @ Notre Dame W 90-85 73%     4 - 0 +13.6 +21.2 -7.4
  Dec 13, 2020 191   Cleveland St. W 67-61 95%     5 - 0 +2.0 -0.5 +2.9
  Dec 16, 2020 27   @ Purdue L 60-67 51%     5 - 1 0 - 1 +7.6 -2.1 +9.4
  Dec 19, 2020 25   UCLA W 77-70 56%     6 - 1 +20.3 +21.8 -0.1
  Dec 23, 2020 41   Rutgers W 80-68 69%     7 - 1 1 - 1 +21.6 +11.3 +10.2
  Dec 26, 2020 73   @ Northwestern L 70-71 70%     7 - 2 1 - 2 +8.5 +4.9 +3.5
  Dec 30, 2020 124   Nebraska W 90-54 89%     8 - 2 2 - 2 +37.6 +15.7 +21.0
  Jan 03, 2021 23   @ Minnesota L 60-77 49%     8 - 3 2 - 3 -1.8 -1.8 -1.1
  Jan 09, 2021 41   @ Rutgers W 79-68 57%     9 - 3 3 - 3 +24.0 +17.8 +6.9
  Jan 13, 2021 73   Northwestern W 81-71 80%     10 - 3 4 - 3 +16.1 +9.9 +6.1
  Jan 16, 2021 9   @ Illinois W 87-81 36%     11 - 3 5 - 3 +24.5 +20.7 +3.8
  Jan 19, 2021 27   Purdue W 71-67 69%    
  Jan 23, 2021 12   @ Wisconsin L 65-68 32%    
  Jan 31, 2021 38   Michigan St. W 76-71 72%    
  Feb 04, 2021 3   @ Iowa L 77-84 22%    
  Feb 08, 2021 50   @ Maryland W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 13, 2021 30   Indiana W 72-68 70%    
  Feb 18, 2021 53   @ Penn St. W 77-74 56%    
  Feb 21, 2021 7   Michigan L 72-73 52%    
  Feb 25, 2021 38   @ Michigan St. W 74-72 52%    
  Feb 28, 2021 3   Iowa L 78-82 42%    
  Mar 06, 2021 9   Illinois L 75-76 54%    
Projected Record 17 - 8 11 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.2 3.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.8 2.4 0.3 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.5 5.0 0.9 11.0 3rd
4th 0.3 4.0 7.8 1.8 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 8.2 3.8 0.2 14.6 5th
6th 1.1 7.2 6.0 0.7 0.0 15.0 6th
7th 0.3 4.0 6.4 1.4 12.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.4 2.0 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.4 2.5 0.3 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.1 8.0 13.4 18.4 20.5 17.7 11.4 4.7 1.7 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-5 80.2% 1.4    0.7 0.4 0.2
14-6 30.5% 1.4    0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2
13-7 3.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.7% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-6 4.7% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 2.0 1.2 2.4 0.9 0.2 100.0%
13-7 11.4% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 2.6 1.2 4.1 4.2 1.6 0.3 100.0%
12-8 17.7% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 3.5 0.3 2.1 7.0 6.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-9 20.5% 100.0% 5.3% 94.7% 4.4 0.1 0.5 4.1 6.2 6.1 3.0 0.6 0.0 100.0%
10-10 18.4% 100.0% 3.7% 96.3% 5.5 0.2 1.0 2.8 5.5 5.0 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-11 13.4% 98.8% 1.5% 97.4% 7.6 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 98.8%
8-12 8.0% 80.7% 0.5% 80.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.6 0.2 1.5 80.6%
7-13 3.1% 29.9% 0.6% 29.2% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.2 29.4%
6-14 0.8% 9.5% 2.4% 7.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 7.3%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.3% 6.9% 88.4% 5.0 4.0 9.9 17.3 17.3 15.1 10.7 6.1 4.2 3.3 2.6 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.7 94.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0