Old Dominion
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#158
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#124
Pace66.3#262
Improvement-1.3#242

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#205
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#220
Layup/Dunks+1.1#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#308
Freethrows+1.5#79
Improvement-4.8#347

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#122
First Shot+0.9#144
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#107
Layups/Dunks+5.6#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#327
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#282
Freethrows+1.1#116
Improvement+3.5#11
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 5.1% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.0 13.7
.500 or above 68.2% 91.0% 63.1%
.500 or above in Conference 42.1% 73.8% 35.1%
Conference Champion 1.0% 4.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round3.0% 4.9% 2.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 18.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 36 - 10
Quad 46 - 112 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 43   @ Maryland L 67-85 12%     0 - 1 -5.0 -0.9 -3.9
  Nov 28, 2020 270   William & Mary W 86-78 80%     1 - 1 -0.5 +7.5 -8.1
  Dec 02, 2020 266   @ Norfolk St. W 80-66 68%     2 - 1 +9.5 +3.8 +5.4
  Dec 12, 2020 66   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 54-77 17%     2 - 2 -12.6 -10.9 -1.4
  Dec 20, 2020 140   Northeastern W 66-62 52%     3 - 2 +3.8 +1.7 +2.4
  Jan 01, 2021 220   @ Florida International L 67-82 59%     3 - 3 0 - 1 -17.1 -10.7 -5.9
  Jan 02, 2021 220   @ Florida International W 71-66 59%     4 - 3 1 - 1 +2.9 -8.5 +11.1
  Jan 08, 2021 178   Florida Atlantic W 71-67 62%     5 - 3 2 - 1 +1.0 +5.5 -4.0
  Jan 09, 2021 178   Florida Atlantic W 64-55 62%     6 - 3 3 - 1 +6.0 -7.0 +13.6
  Jan 15, 2021 190   @ Rice L 59-69 53%     6 - 4 3 - 2 -10.4 -10.7 -0.5
  Jan 16, 2021 190   @ Rice W 61-58 53%     7 - 4 4 - 2 +2.6 -13.9 +16.4
  Jan 29, 2021 84   @ Western Kentucky L 64-72 18%    
  Jan 30, 2021 84   @ Western Kentucky L 64-72 19%    
  Feb 05, 2021 81   Marshall L 69-74 37%    
  Feb 06, 2021 81   Marshall L 69-74 37%    
  Feb 10, 2021 165   @ Charlotte L 60-61 41%    
  Feb 13, 2021 165   Charlotte W 62-59 62%    
  Feb 19, 2021 98   @ UAB L 63-70 22%    
  Feb 20, 2021 98   @ UAB L 63-70 22%    
  Feb 26, 2021 272   Middle Tennessee W 69-60 82%    
  Feb 27, 2021 272   Middle Tennessee W 69-60 82%    
Projected Record 11 - 10 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 2.9 0.2 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 1.7 5.6 1.3 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.7 6.1 4.3 0.2 11.3 5th
6th 0.2 5.0 8.6 1.2 15.0 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 9.9 3.9 0.1 16.5 7th
8th 0.9 7.9 6.9 0.3 16.1 8th
9th 0.1 3.6 7.3 1.1 0.0 12.2 9th
10th 0.8 4.3 1.7 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 1.5 0.1 3.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 0.2 1.2 12th
13th 0.2 0.1 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.4 3.3 10.6 19.8 23.8 20.7 13.4 5.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 82.4% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 25.1% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 29.4% 23.5% 5.9% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7.7%
12-6 1.7% 12.4% 11.5% 0.9% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.0%
11-7 5.9% 10.0% 10.0% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.3
10-8 13.4% 6.8% 6.8% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 12.5
9-9 20.7% 2.3% 2.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 20.2
8-10 23.8% 1.6% 1.6% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 23.4
7-11 19.8% 1.5% 1.5% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 19.5
6-12 10.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 10.5
5-13 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.1% 3.0% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 96.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%