Oregon St.
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#140
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#141
Pace63.5#315
Improvement+1.8#71

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#98
First Shot+2.3#113
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#144
Layup/Dunks-3.2#286
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#116
Freethrows+3.5#14
Improvement+3.7#18

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#208
First Shot+0.1#175
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#264
Layups/Dunks-5.7#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#11
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#77
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement-1.9#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 2.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.2 12.0
.500 or above 5.4% 17.9% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 10.1% 30.6% 8.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.3% 3.5% 12.9%
First Four0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 2.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 6.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 9
Quad 21 - 32 - 12
Quad 33 - 36 - 16
Quad 45 - 210 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 136   California W 71-63 55%     1 - 0 +8.2 -1.5 +9.8
  Dec 02, 2020 126   @ Washington St. L 55-59 38%     1 - 1 0 - 1 +0.8 -10.7 +11.4
  Dec 06, 2020 181   Wyoming L 73-76 69%     1 - 2 -6.7 -2.8 -4.0
  Dec 10, 2020 287   Portland L 86-87 OT 85%     1 - 3 -10.5 -0.4 -10.0
  Dec 16, 2020 211   Texas San Antonio W 73-61 74%     2 - 3 +6.9 -5.6 +12.6
  Dec 22, 2020 278   Portland St. W 67-62 84%     3 - 3 -4.1 -5.0 +1.3
  Jan 02, 2021 136   California W 73-64 55%     4 - 3 1 - 1 +9.2 +7.5 +2.7
  Jan 04, 2021 50   Stanford L 71-81 25%     4 - 4 1 - 2 -1.3 +6.5 -8.1
  Jan 14, 2021 29   Arizona L 64-98 19%     4 - 5 1 - 3 -23.2 -6.4 -16.4
  Jan 16, 2021 77   Arizona St. W 80-79 36%     5 - 5 2 - 3 +6.2 +16.8 -10.5
  Jan 19, 2021 24   USC W 58-56 17%     6 - 5 3 - 3 +13.6 +1.1 +12.8
  Jan 23, 2021 20   @ Oregon L 63-78 7%    
  Jan 28, 2021 24   @ USC L 62-76 9%    
  Jan 30, 2021 25   @ UCLA L 62-76 9%    
  Feb 04, 2021 135   Washington W 72-71 59%    
  Feb 06, 2021 126   Washington St. W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 11, 2021 29   @ Arizona L 65-78 11%    
  Feb 18, 2021 76   Utah L 66-70 42%    
  Feb 20, 2021 19   Colorado L 64-75 18%    
  Feb 25, 2021 136   @ California L 66-68 37%    
  Feb 27, 2021 50   @ Stanford L 64-75 14%    
  Mar 06, 2021 20   Oregon L 65-76 20%    
  Mar 08, 2021 19   @ Colorado L 62-77 7%    
  Mar 08, 2021 77   Arizona St. L 72-76 42%    
  Mar 08, 2021 24   @ USC L 62-76 9%    
  Mar 09, 2021 77   @ Arizona St. L 71-78 23%    
  Mar 09, 2021 19   Colorado L 64-75 18%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.5 0.9 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.2 4.0 7.2 6.2 1.8 0.3 19.8 7th
8th 0.3 4.6 8.9 5.7 1.1 20.6 8th
9th 0.0 2.9 9.6 4.6 0.7 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 1.1 8.3 5.1 0.5 0.0 15.0 10th
11th 1.0 5.4 4.3 0.8 0.0 11.5 11th
12th 1.7 2.4 0.5 4.5 12th
Total 2.6 8.9 16.3 20.3 18.0 14.2 9.6 5.4 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
14-6 0.1% 98.3% 64.4% 33.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.2%
13-7 0.2% 0.2
12-8 1.2% 3.3% 3.3% 9.0 0.0 1.1
11-9 3.1% 2.5% 2.5% 11.0 0.1 3.0
10-10 5.4% 0.7% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
9-11 9.6% 0.4% 0.4% 14.0 0.0 9.5
8-12 14.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 14.1
7-13 18.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.0
6-14 20.3% 20.3
5-15 16.3% 16.3
4-16 8.9% 8.9
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 12.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%