Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#52
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#67
Pace72.9#98
Improvement-2.2#287

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#31
First Shot+5.2#50
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#73
Layup/Dunks-0.5#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#90
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#26
Freethrows-1.9#291
Improvement-1.7#283

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#82
First Shot+2.2#99
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#94
Layups/Dunks-1.3#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#50
Freethrows-1.5#273
Improvement-0.5#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.9% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 6.3% 8.8% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 30.8% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.9% 29.6% 12.6%
Average Seed 8.9 8.7 9.6
.500 or above 34.1% 43.9% 18.9%
.500 or above in Conference 16.6% 22.8% 6.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 2.4% 7.9%
First Four7.0% 8.1% 5.1%
First Round20.9% 27.2% 11.0%
Second Round11.6% 15.3% 5.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.5% 6.1% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.7% 2.3% 0.7%
Final Four0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Rutgers (Home) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 11
Quad 25 - 38 - 13
Quad 32 - 010 - 14
Quad 41 - 011 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 212   VMI W 86-65 92%     1 - 0 +15.8 +1.6 +13.0
  Dec 02, 2020 72   Virginia Commonwealth W 72-69 68%     2 - 0 +8.6 +2.0 +6.5
  Dec 06, 2020 39   Seton Hall L 92-98 OT 53%     2 - 1 +3.7 +8.7 -4.1
  Dec 08, 2020 41   @ Virginia Tech W 75-55 41%     3 - 1 +33.0 +20.0 +15.9
  Dec 13, 2020 4   @ Michigan L 58-62 19%     3 - 2 0 - 1 +15.8 -2.8 +18.5
  Dec 23, 2020 9   Illinois L 81-98 32%     3 - 3 0 - 2 -1.7 +11.7 -12.9
  Dec 30, 2020 23   @ Indiana L 85-87 OT 32%     3 - 4 0 - 3 +13.4 +15.2 -1.7
  Jan 12, 2021 48   Rutgers W 75-73 61%    
  Jan 17, 2021 28   @ Purdue L 72-80 34%     3 - 5 0 - 4 +6.8 +3.3 +4.0
  Jan 19, 2021 9   @ Illinois L 65-79 21%     3 - 6 0 - 5 +4.9 -3.9 +9.6
  Jan 21, 2021 48   Rutgers W 75-67 57%     4 - 6 1 - 5 +16.9 +6.7 +10.1
  Jan 23, 2021 73   Northwestern W 78-73 72%    
  Jan 27, 2021 11   Wisconsin L 67-71 39%    
  Jan 30, 2021 122   @ Nebraska W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 02, 2021 11   @ Wisconsin L 65-73 20%    
  Feb 05, 2021 56   Maryland W 75-73 63%    
  Feb 09, 2021 40   @ Michigan St. L 75-78 36%    
  Feb 14, 2021 122   Nebraska W 83-74 83%    
  Feb 18, 2021 20   Ohio St. L 74-76 47%    
  Feb 21, 2021 3   @ Iowa L 78-88 16%    
  Feb 26, 2021 28   Purdue L 71-72 52%    
  Mar 03, 2021 25   Minnesota L 77-78 51%    
  Mar 07, 2021 56   @ Maryland L 74-75 41%    
Projected Record 10 - 13 7 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.1 0.3 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.3 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.5 3.4 0.2 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 6.3 1.2 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 7.4 3.5 0.2 13.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 6.6 6.0 0.6 14.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 5.1 7.0 1.4 0.0 14.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.6 2.3 0.1 13.7 12th
13th 0.1 1.2 3.9 5.1 2.1 0.2 12.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.2 10.0 14.9 18.0 18.0 14.7 9.3 5.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 52.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 6.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.5% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.8% 99.9% 8.1% 91.8% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 5.0% 98.8% 5.0% 93.9% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.8%
10-10 9.3% 90.3% 2.5% 87.7% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.9 90.0%
9-11 14.7% 44.3% 1.8% 42.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.2 43.3%
8-12 18.0% 8.6% 1.2% 7.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 16.4 7.4%
7-13 18.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.8 0.8%
6-14 14.9% 0.3% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.9
5-15 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 10.0
4-16 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
3-17 2.0% 2.0
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 24.0% 1.3% 22.6% 8.9 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.7 4.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 76.0 22.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%