Rhode Island
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#66
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#94
Pace74.8#58
Improvement-0.9#226

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#99
First Shot+2.8#102
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#179
Layup/Dunks+2.5#85
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#262
Freethrows+2.6#36
Improvement-1.1#249

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#44
First Shot+5.5#37
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#181
Layups/Dunks+1.7#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#76
Freethrows+0.1#177
Improvement+0.2#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 15.8% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.0% 5.4% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 12.5
.500 or above 77.5% 80.4% 49.6%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 91.2% 71.0%
Conference Champion 23.2% 24.7% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 2.4% 0.4%
First Round14.0% 14.5% 9.6%
Second Round4.4% 4.7% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Home) - 90.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 3
Quad 24 - 56 - 8
Quad 34 - 410 - 12
Quad 44 - 015 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 77   Arizona St. L 88-94 55%     0 - 1 +1.0 +6.8 -5.1
  Nov 26, 2020 106   Boston College L 64-69 64%     0 - 2 -0.5 -11.1 +10.8
  Nov 28, 2020 98   South Florida W 84-68 63%     1 - 2 +20.8 +13.4 +6.9
  Nov 29, 2020 88   San Francisco W 84-71 57%     2 - 2 +19.4 +7.8 +10.4
  Dec 02, 2020 40   Seton Hall W 76-63 44%     3 - 2 +22.7 +8.5 +14.5
  Dec 09, 2020 11   @ Wisconsin L 62-73 17%     3 - 3 +7.4 -2.0 +9.5
  Dec 13, 2020 85   @ Western Kentucky L 65-68 50%     3 - 4 +5.3 -3.5 +8.7
  Dec 18, 2020 65   Davidson L 58-67 57%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -2.5 -9.6 +6.2
  Dec 30, 2020 58   St. Bonaventure W 63-57 51%     4 - 5 1 - 1 +14.0 -4.9 +19.0
  Jan 03, 2021 200   Saint Joseph's W 85-77 OT 88%     5 - 5 2 - 1 +3.3 -6.9 +8.9
  Jan 06, 2021 49   @ Richmond L 73-80 34%     5 - 6 2 - 2 +5.4 +1.3 +4.3
  Jan 09, 2021 71   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 83-68 46%     6 - 6 3 - 2 +24.2 +10.6 +12.4
  Jan 13, 2021 101   @ Massachusetts L 78-80 OT 56%     6 - 7 3 - 3 +4.6 -5.7 +10.6
  Jan 16, 2021 153   George Mason W 80-60 81%     7 - 7 4 - 3 +18.8 +13.1 +6.8
  Jan 20, 2021 130   @ Duquesne L 69-71 64%     7 - 8 4 - 4 +2.5 +0.9 +1.6
  Jan 24, 2021 208   George Washington W 82-69 91%    
  Jan 27, 2021 182   @ La Salle W 75-67 74%    
  Jan 30, 2021 73   @ Dayton L 69-70 43%    
  Feb 03, 2021 71   Virginia Commonwealth W 73-70 64%    
  Feb 06, 2021 101   Massachusetts W 80-75 71%    
  Feb 10, 2021 32   @ Saint Louis L 70-76 27%    
  Feb 13, 2021 65   @ Davidson L 70-72 39%    
  Feb 16, 2021 73   Dayton W 71-68 63%    
  Feb 20, 2021 284   Fordham W 70-53 96%    
  Mar 02, 2021 200   @ Saint Joseph's W 83-74 77%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 5.1 10.2 6.1 1.5 23.2 1st
2nd 2.3 11.9 6.0 0.4 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 7.8 7.1 1.0 16.2 3rd
4th 2.6 8.5 1.5 12.6 4th
5th 0.7 6.7 3.3 0.2 10.8 5th
6th 1.9 5.1 0.2 7.2 6th
7th 0.2 3.2 1.3 4.6 7th
8th 0.7 2.0 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.1 8.1 16.0 22.3 25.8 17.2 6.6 1.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 1.5    1.4 0.0
13-5 93.6% 6.1    4.6 1.4 0.1
12-6 59.5% 10.2    3.6 4.4 2.1 0.2 0.0
11-7 19.8% 5.1    0.5 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
10-8 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 10.1 7.2 4.1 1.4 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.5% 76.6% 18.6% 58.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 71.2%
13-5 6.6% 46.3% 20.7% 25.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.1 3.5 32.2%
12-6 17.2% 26.3% 17.1% 9.2% 11.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 1.4 1.7 0.5 0.0 12.7 11.1%
11-7 25.8% 13.4% 12.0% 1.4% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 0.3 22.3 1.5%
10-8 22.3% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 12.4 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 20.3 0.0%
9-9 16.0% 4.4% 4.4% 12.9 0.2 0.5 0.1 15.3
8-10 8.1% 3.4% 3.4% 14.6 0.1 0.2 7.8
7-11 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
6-12 0.4% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.2% 10.8% 4.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 2.1 3.4 5.6 2.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 84.8 5.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.9 0.4 42.3 28.7 28.3 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 83.5% 7.0 16.5 49.6 17.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 80.3% 9.9 9.8 19.7 30.1 10.9 9.8