Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#215
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#180
Pace60.4#342
Improvement-1.2#253

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#268
First Shot-7.6#331
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#20
Layup/Dunks-4.0#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#132
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#277
Freethrows-0.7#220
Improvement-1.4#273

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#158
First Shot+1.9#111
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#285
Layups/Dunks-1.0#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#108
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#33
Freethrows-3.0#316
Improvement+0.2#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 8.3% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 52.0% 68.1% 36.7%
.500 or above in Conference 37.6% 52.6% 23.3%
Conference Champion 6.5% 10.9% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.3% 2.6%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round4.9% 8.3% 1.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 48.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 47 - 39 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 03, 2020 338   Idaho W 77-55 86%     1 - 0 1 - 0 +6.8 +0.2 +7.8
  Dec 05, 2020 338   Idaho W 73-57 86%     2 - 0 2 - 0 +0.8 -2.9 +4.8
  Dec 30, 2020 81   @ St. Mary's L 45-63 13%     2 - 1 -9.4 -15.0 +2.7
  Jan 17, 2021 267   @ Idaho St. W 64-63 49%    
  Jan 21, 2021 156   Montana L 58-61 46%    
  Jan 23, 2021 156   Montana L 58-61 46%    
  Jan 28, 2021 118   @ Eastern Washington L 63-72 18%    
  Jan 30, 2021 118   @ Eastern Washington L 63-72 17%    
  Feb 04, 2021 307   Northern Arizona W 67-60 79%    
  Feb 06, 2021 307   Northern Arizona W 67-60 79%    
  Feb 11, 2021 208   @ Northern Colorado L 60-62 39%    
  Feb 13, 2021 208   Northern Colorado W 61-60 60%    
  Feb 18, 2021 189   @ Southern Utah L 66-69 34%    
  Feb 20, 2021 189   @ Southern Utah L 66-69 34%    
  Feb 25, 2021 179   Weber St. L 64-65 52%    
  Feb 27, 2021 179   Weber St. L 64-65 53%    
  Mar 04, 2021 186   @ Montana St. L 62-65 33%    
  Mar 06, 2021 186   @ Montana St. L 62-65 33%    
Projected Record 9 - 9 9 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 6.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.9 2.4 0.3 7.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.4 3.6 0.4 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.9 5.4 0.8 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.4 3.6 6.8 1.6 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.4 2.6 0.1 12.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 4.0 6.2 3.3 0.3 14.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 4.8 2.4 0.3 12.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.0 0.9 0.1 6.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.6 6.4 10.2 12.2 14.1 14.4 12.5 9.6 7.3 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-4 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-5 96.2% 1.1    1.0 0.1
14-6 85.3% 2.0    1.3 0.6 0.0
13-7 45.9% 1.9    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-8 13.5% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-9 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 100.0% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
15-5 1.1% 90.1% 90.1% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1
14-6 2.3% 72.2% 72.2% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.6
13-7 4.2% 33.0% 33.0% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 2.8
12-8 7.3% 5.4% 5.4% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 6.9
11-9 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 9.6
10-10 12.5% 12.5
9-11 14.4% 14.4
8-12 14.1% 14.1
7-13 12.2% 12.2
6-14 10.2% 10.2
5-15 6.4% 6.4
4-16 3.6% 3.6
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.7 0.6 95.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.3 14.0 16.0 18.0 4.0 2.0 30.0 16.0
Lose Out 0.3%