Saint Joseph's
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#203
Expected Predictive Rating-9.1#289
Pace78.0#30
Improvement-1.1#233

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#159
First Shot+1.0#156
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#217
Layup/Dunks+2.9#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#74
Freethrows-1.1#249
Improvement-1.5#272

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#268
First Shot+0.3#163
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#342
Layups/Dunks+2.3#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#207
Freethrows-1.8#285
Improvement+0.4#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 54.4% 33.2% 58.9%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Home) - 17.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 70 - 12
Quad 31 - 62 - 18
Quad 43 - 24 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 26, 2020 57   Auburn L 91-96 OT 11%     0 - 1 +5.1 +6.2 -0.1
  Nov 27, 2020 18   Kansas L 72-94 5%     0 - 2 -6.9 -4.2 +0.7
  Dec 17, 2020 162   @ Drexel L 77-81 32%     0 - 3 -2.3 -0.6 -1.4
  Dec 19, 2020 5   @ Villanova L 68-88 3%     0 - 4 -0.2 +2.2 -2.4
  Dec 21, 2020 13   @ Tennessee L 66-102 4%     0 - 5 -18.4 -2.7 -11.9
  Dec 30, 2020 66   Virginia Commonwealth L 64-80 18%     0 - 6 0 - 1 -9.3 -6.0 -2.4
  Jan 03, 2021 68   @ Rhode Island L 77-85 OT 11%     0 - 7 0 - 2 +2.1 -2.6 +6.2
  Jan 06, 2021 58   @ St. Bonaventure L 57-83 9%     0 - 8 0 - 3 -14.2 -9.8 -4.2
  Jan 09, 2021 215   Albany W 67-64 60%     1 - 8 -2.7 -6.0 +3.3
  Jan 12, 2021 69   @ Davidson L 66-80 11%     1 - 9 0 - 4 -3.9 -6.3 +2.7
  Jan 18, 2021 173   @ La Salle L 83-90 34%     1 - 10 0 - 5 -5.9 +4.1 -9.3
  Jan 20, 2021 144   @ George Mason L 85-87 2OT 28%     1 - 11 0 - 6 +1.0 +0.6 +0.7
  Jan 23, 2021 144   George Mason L 62-71 41%     1 - 12 0 - 7 -9.7 -7.4 -2.5
  Jan 26, 2021 61   Richmond L 75-86 17%    
  Jan 30, 2021 127   @ Duquesne L 70-78 21%    
  Feb 03, 2021 58   St. Bonaventure L 67-78 17%    
  Feb 06, 2021 173   La Salle L 76-77 52%    
  Feb 13, 2021 88   @ Dayton L 67-78 13%    
  Feb 17, 2021 205   @ George Washington L 79-81 40%    
  Feb 20, 2021 69   Davidson L 71-80 22%    
  Feb 24, 2021 99   Massachusetts L 80-86 32%    
  Feb 27, 2021 278   @ Fordham W 66-64 54%    
  Mar 02, 2021 68   Rhode Island L 73-83 22%    
Projected Record 4 - 19 3 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 0.4 1.2 9th
10th 0.5 1.8 0.2 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.0 1.5 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.1 2.5 8.1 4.9 0.4 0.0 16.1 12th
13th 1.1 10.6 17.0 8.2 1.0 0.0 38.0 13th
14th 4.3 13.5 13.2 4.6 0.5 36.2 14th
Total 4.3 14.7 23.9 24.2 17.4 9.5 4.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 4.5% 4.5
5-13 9.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.4
4-14 17.4% 17.4
3-15 24.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.2
2-16 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.9
1-17 14.7% 14.7
0-18 4.3% 4.3
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.3%