Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#32
Expected Predictive Rating+15.3#27
Pace69.7#186
Improvement-1.3#245

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#32
First Shot+6.2#36
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#129
Layup/Dunks+7.8#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#212
Freethrows-0.8#225
Improvement-1.8#284

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#47
First Shot+2.0#108
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#12
Layups/Dunks+4.5#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#270
Freethrows-2.0#288
Improvement+0.6#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 2.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.1% 7.1% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 18.2% 24.2% 4.5%
Top 6 Seed 33.4% 42.2% 13.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 80.8% 87.5% 65.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.0% 82.7% 60.4%
Average Seed 7.2 6.7 8.8
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 44.7% 55.9% 19.1%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.3%
First Four5.9% 4.4% 9.3%
First Round78.1% 85.4% 61.4%
Second Round47.6% 55.3% 29.8%
Sweet Sixteen20.9% 25.6% 10.3%
Elite Eight8.9% 11.1% 3.8%
Final Four3.5% 4.1% 1.9%
Championship Game0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Home) - 69.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 2
Quad 24 - 26 - 4
Quad 34 - 110 - 4
Quad 47 - 017 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 306   SIU Edwardsville W 89-52 97%     1 - 0 +25.9 +6.2 +17.4
  Nov 28, 2020 30   LSU W 85-81 56%     2 - 0 +14.7 +17.5 -2.6
  Dec 05, 2020 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 107-54 99%     3 - 0 +33.8 +22.2 +10.2
  Dec 08, 2020 281   Central Arkansas W 88-65 97%     4 - 0 +13.8 +1.6 +10.4
  Dec 15, 2020 129   Indiana St. W 78-59 85%     5 - 0 +20.0 +13.1 +8.5
  Dec 17, 2020 67   North Carolina St. W 80-69 72%     6 - 0 +17.4 +0.4 +15.8
  Dec 20, 2020 23   @ Minnesota L 82-90 39%     6 - 1 +7.3 +5.9 +2.4
  Dec 23, 2020 235   UMKC W 62-46 95%     7 - 1 +9.4 +0.3 +12.3
  Jan 23, 2021 58   St. Bonaventure W 70-66 70%    
  Jan 26, 2021 73   Dayton W 72-65 77%    
  Jan 29, 2021 49   @ Richmond L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 06, 2021 208   @ George Washington W 82-68 88%    
  Feb 10, 2021 66   Rhode Island W 76-70 73%    
  Feb 13, 2021 284   @ Fordham W 70-52 94%    
  Feb 16, 2021 182   La Salle W 79-63 95%    
  Feb 19, 2021 73   @ Dayton W 70-67 56%    
  Feb 23, 2021 71   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 72-69 58%    
  Feb 26, 2021 49   Richmond W 77-73 67%    
  Mar 02, 2021 153   George Mason W 75-61 92%    
Projected Record 15 - 4 8 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 1.7 1st
2nd 2.1 3.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.6 1.2 7.2 3rd
4th 3.0 6.1 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.8 8.2 2.3 11.2 5th
6th 0.1 5.4 8.2 0.3 14.0 6th
7th 1.8 10.2 2.5 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.5 7.2 6.2 0.1 14.0 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 5.5 1.3 9.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 4.0 1.6 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.2 2.1 1.5 0.2 4.1 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.5 8.3 16.4 23.8 22.3 16.5 5.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 27.6% 1.6    0.2 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0
10-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 5.9% 100.0% 52.2% 47.8% 2.6 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 16.5% 99.8% 41.6% 58.1% 4.3 0.4 1.7 3.5 4.1 2.4 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
9-9 22.3% 97.1% 25.6% 71.4% 6.8 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.7 4.1 4.5 3.3 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.7 96.1%
8-10 23.8% 86.3% 15.6% 70.7% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.9 3.2 4.3 4.7 2.7 0.9 0.0 3.3 83.8%
7-11 16.4% 69.0% 16.8% 52.2% 10.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.5 3.6 1.9 0.2 5.1 62.7%
6-12 8.3% 49.9% 8.9% 40.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.7 1.4 0.3 4.2 45.0%
5-13 4.5% 15.4% 3.5% 11.9% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 3.8 12.4%
4-14 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 12.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.1% 1.2% 1.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 80.8% 23.1% 57.7% 7.2 1.6 3.5 5.9 7.3 6.4 8.8 8.3 7.9 8.2 9.3 8.5 4.6 0.7 0.0 19.2 75.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 2.0 35.5 34.2 25.2 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 3.0 4.8 18.1 49.8 22.8 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 3.3 3.3 25.8 22.9 35.4 9.5 3.2