Sam Houston St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#181
Expected Predictive Rating+6.1#93
Pace76.7#38
Improvement+5.5#4

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#195
First Shot-1.8#220
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#128
Layup/Dunks-1.7#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#104
Freethrows-1.1#241
Improvement+3.6#13

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#182
First Shot+0.1#163
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#215
Layups/Dunks+5.0#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#106
Freethrows-2.9#315
Improvement+1.9#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 16.4% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 14.8
.500 or above 91.9% 93.3% 75.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.2% 94.6%
Conference Champion 22.7% 23.9% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round15.6% 16.1% 9.7%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Baptist (Home) - 92.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 32 - 13 - 7
Quad 412 - 315 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 57   @ SMU L 67-97 12%     0 - 1 -18.9 -5.8 -11.4
  Nov 27, 2020 12   @ Texas Tech L 52-84 5%     0 - 2 -14.8 -12.9 -1.1
  Nov 29, 2020 40   Boise St. L 55-86 12%     0 - 3 -19.7 -15.6 -2.6
  Dec 14, 2020 20   @ LSU L 66-88 6%     0 - 4 -5.9 -11.1 +7.8
  Dec 16, 2020 10   @ Texas L 63-79 4%     0 - 5 +2.4 -3.5 +6.6
  Dec 19, 2020 197   Rice W 82-69 61%     1 - 5 +8.6 -1.8 +9.2
  Dec 21, 2020 227   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 69-66 55%     2 - 5 +0.1 -11.4 +11.2
  Jan 02, 2021 191   @ Nicholls St. W 84-81 46%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +2.4 +3.4 -1.2
  Jan 06, 2021 320   @ SE Louisiana W 70-52 77%     4 - 5 2 - 0 +8.7 -2.7 +12.6
  Jan 09, 2021 283   @ Central Arkansas W 91-80 67%     5 - 5 3 - 0 +5.0 +4.7 -0.6
  Jan 13, 2021 305   Lamar W 96-71 81%     6 - 5 4 - 0 +14.0 +9.6 +1.7
  Jan 16, 2021 337   Houston Baptist W 89-75 92%    
  Jan 20, 2021 127   Abilene Christian L 68-71 45%    
  Jan 27, 2021 316   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-66 70%    
  Jan 30, 2021 159   @ Stephen F. Austin L 75-78 33%    
  Feb 06, 2021 191   Nicholls St. W 77-75 63%    
  Feb 10, 2021 320   SE Louisiana W 81-70 87%    
  Feb 13, 2021 283   Central Arkansas W 86-78 80%    
  Feb 17, 2021 305   @ Lamar W 76-70 67%    
  Feb 20, 2021 337   @ Houston Baptist W 87-77 79%    
  Feb 24, 2021 127   @ Abilene Christian L 66-72 25%    
  Mar 03, 2021 316   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75-65 85%    
  Mar 06, 2021 159   Stephen F. Austin L 76-77 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 9 12 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 6.1 9.6 4.7 0.9 22.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 9.2 10.6 2.4 24.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 8.3 9.5 2.2 0.0 22.6 3rd
4th 0.3 2.9 8.2 7.7 2.1 0.1 21.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.5 1.6 0.2 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 6.3 12.6 18.7 22.1 18.8 12.0 4.7 0.9 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
15-1 100.0% 4.7    4.2 0.5
14-2 79.8% 9.6    5.5 3.6 0.5 0.0
13-3 32.2% 6.1    1.7 2.8 1.3 0.2
12-4 5.8% 1.3    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 22.7% 22.7 12.6 7.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.9% 46.8% 46.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5
15-1 4.7% 37.2% 37.2% 13.6 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 2.9
14-2 12.0% 29.0% 29.0% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.0 0.0 8.5
13-3 18.8% 23.4% 23.4% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.0 0.3 14.4
12-4 22.1% 14.6% 14.6% 14.9 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.7 18.9
11-5 18.7% 9.1% 9.1% 15.2 0.2 1.0 0.6 17.0
10-6 12.6% 5.7% 5.7% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 11.9
9-7 6.3% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 6.2
8-8 2.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.7
7-9 0.9% 0.9
6-10 0.2% 0.2
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.4 6.1 2.1 84.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.5 0.9 5.9 36.0 52.6 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%