San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#47
Expected Predictive Rating+10.7#54
Pace62.5#329
Improvement-4.2#338

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#74
First Shot+2.9#95
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#112
Layup/Dunks-4.8#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#70
Freethrows+0.9#125
Improvement-3.0#333

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#20
First Shot+4.6#50
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#31
Layups/Dunks+9.3#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#309
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#269
Freethrows+0.1#172
Improvement-1.2#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.0% 4.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 7.4% 8.1% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.5% 63.5% 41.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.1% 53.4% 29.5%
Average Seed 9.4 9.3 10.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.7% 96.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.4% 9.5% 8.1%
First Round57.3% 59.3% 37.6%
Second Round27.1% 28.5% 13.2%
Sweet Sixteen8.9% 9.5% 3.5%
Elite Eight3.2% 3.4% 0.9%
Final Four1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 24 - 25 - 5
Quad 35 - 111 - 6
Quad 49 - 020 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 25   UCLA W 73-58 48%     1 - 0 +26.6 +11.7 +16.8
  Nov 27, 2020 116   UC Irvine W 77-58 80%     2 - 0 +21.0 +5.7 +15.3
  Dec 06, 2020 147   Pepperdine W 65-60 86%     3 - 0 +4.5 -8.7 +13.2
  Dec 10, 2020 78   @ Arizona St. W 80-68 59%     4 - 0 +20.8 +8.1 +12.2
  Dec 18, 2020 34   BYU L 62-72 54%     4 - 1 -0.1 -1.6 +0.8
  Dec 22, 2020 85   St. Mary's W 74-49 66%     5 - 1 +31.7 +17.4 +18.1
  Jan 02, 2021 71   Colorado St. L 67-70 68%     5 - 2 0 - 1 +3.2 -0.6 +3.7
  Jan 04, 2021 71   Colorado St. W 78-65 68%     6 - 2 1 - 1 +19.2 +10.6 +9.0
  Jan 07, 2021 101   Nevada W 65-60 78%     7 - 2 2 - 1 +8.1 -2.6 +11.0
  Jan 09, 2021 101   Nevada W 69-67 78%     8 - 2 3 - 1 +5.1 +2.2 +3.0
  Jan 14, 2021 44   @ Utah St. L 45-57 43%     8 - 3 3 - 2 +0.8 -13.5 +13.2
  Jan 16, 2021 44   @ Utah St. L 59-64 43%     8 - 4 3 - 3 +7.8 -2.3 +10.0
  Jan 22, 2021 268   @ Air Force W 69-53 91%    
  Jan 24, 2021 268   @ Air Force W 69-53 91%    
  Jan 28, 2021 183   Wyoming W 76-61 93%    
  Jan 30, 2021 183   Wyoming W 76-61 93%    
  Feb 03, 2021 245   @ New Mexico W 70-55 90%    
  Feb 05, 2021 245   @ New Mexico W 70-55 89%    
  Feb 08, 2021 324   San Jose St. W 84-60 99%    
  Feb 10, 2021 324   San Jose St. W 84-60 99%    
  Feb 18, 2021 178   @ Fresno St. W 68-57 81%    
  Feb 20, 2021 178   @ Fresno St. W 68-57 82%    
  Feb 25, 2021 40   Boise St. W 67-66 59%    
  Feb 27, 2021 40   Boise St. W 67-66 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 6 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.4 10.9 9.8 24.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 6.6 16.4 16.9 4.7 45.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.7 8.7 7.4 2.5 0.1 24.7 5th
6th 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 6.4 15.9 27.3 30.8 17.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 17.0% 93.8% 33.7% 60.1% 6.7 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.1 2.0 2.9 2.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 1.1 90.6%
14-6 30.8% 78.5% 22.8% 55.7% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.5 6.4 5.8 2.3 0.2 6.6 72.1%
13-7 27.3% 53.1% 18.5% 34.6% 10.8 0.0 0.5 1.1 3.6 4.6 4.1 0.5 0.0 12.8 42.4%
12-8 15.9% 33.1% 14.2% 18.9% 11.4 0.1 0.8 1.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.6 22.0%
11-9 6.4% 20.2% 12.7% 7.5% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.1 8.6%
10-10 2.0% 13.5% 10.5% 2.9% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.8 3.3%
9-11 0.6% 3.6% 3.6% 12.0 0.0 0.5
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 61.5% 21.1% 40.3% 9.4 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 3.5 6.1 8.4 12.1 12.9 9.8 1.1 0.1 38.5 51.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.7% 100.0% 3.9 2.1 8.2 29.0 28.9 22.5 7.3 1.4 0.3 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.0% 95.4% 7.6 0.7 1.3 3.4 13.3 24.6 29.1 15.2 6.5 0.7 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.0% 89.3% 8.4 0.4 1.6 5.1 15.9 22.7 25.7 10.7 5.5 1.5