San Diego
West Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#201
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#247
Pace73.1#92
Improvement+0.5#127

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#256
First Shot-0.2#182
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#313
Layup/Dunks-0.3#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#133
Freethrows-0.5#212
Improvement-0.3#189

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#151
First Shot-1.0#201
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#84
Layups/Dunks+2.3#113
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#134
Freethrows-1.0#235
Improvement+0.8#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 16.0
.500 or above 2.9% 5.4% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 6.5% 11.5% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.5% 16.5% 39.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Home) - 47.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 41 - 8
Quad 32 - 52 - 13
Quad 43 - 26 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 09, 2020 24   @ UCLA L 56-83 5%     0 - 1 -11.4 -12.1 +0.6
  Dec 14, 2020 107   Nevada L 72-79 30%     0 - 2 -4.4 -6.6 +3.0
  Dec 16, 2020 324   @ Cal Poly W 70-61 75%     1 - 2 -1.1 -4.7 +3.9
  Dec 19, 2020 116   @ UC Irvine L 53-85 22%     1 - 3 -26.7 -16.0 -11.0
  Dec 31, 2020 84   @ San Francisco L 62-70 15%     1 - 4 0 - 1 +0.2 -7.8 +8.3
  Jan 17, 2021 150   Santa Clara L 69-71 48%    
  Jan 19, 2021 119   @ Loyola Marymount L 65-73 20%    
  Jan 23, 2021 281   @ Portland W 75-72 56%    
  Jan 28, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 69-94 1%    
  Jan 30, 2021 119   Loyola Marymount L 66-71 38%    
  Feb 02, 2021 42   BYU L 65-78 16%    
  Feb 04, 2021 154   @ Pepperdine L 73-78 28%    
  Feb 06, 2021 125   Pacific L 64-68 39%    
  Feb 08, 2021 81   St. Mary's L 60-68 27%    
  Feb 13, 2021 42   @ BYU L 64-80 6%    
  Feb 18, 2021 150   @ Santa Clara L 67-72 28%    
  Feb 20, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 67-95 0.4%   
  Feb 25, 2021 281   Portland W 76-70 76%    
  Feb 27, 2021 154   Pepperdine L 74-76 48%    
Projected Record 5 - 14 4 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.8 1.3 0.1 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.7 2.7 0.1 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 6.9 4.7 0.3 0.0 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 8.5 7.6 0.9 0.0 18.9 8th
9th 0.5 5.4 12.4 8.3 1.6 0.0 28.3 9th
10th 1.6 5.1 6.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 16.9 10th
Total 1.6 5.7 12.2 17.5 18.6 17.5 12.7 7.7 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 1.6% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.1% 0.1
10-6 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-7 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 1.9
8-8 4.1% 0.4% 0.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 4.0
7-9 7.7% 7.7
6-10 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.7
5-11 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.5
4-12 18.6% 18.6
3-13 17.5% 17.5
2-14 12.2% 12.2
1-15 5.7% 5.7
0-16 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%