San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#74
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#99
Pace69.9#182
Improvement+0.0#181

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#97
First Shot+3.1#87
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#185
Layup/Dunks-0.2#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.3#4
Freethrows-2.8#318
Improvement-1.2#256

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#57
First Shot+3.1#77
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#86
Layups/Dunks+1.4#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#13
Freethrows-3.0#318
Improvement+1.2#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 13.9% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.9% 11.9% 3.7%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 11.4
.500 or above 91.8% 96.6% 83.4%
.500 or above in Conference 83.1% 91.6% 68.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.2% 5.5% 2.1%
First Round8.3% 10.8% 3.9%
Second Round2.8% 3.7% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Home) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 12 - 5
Quad 22 - 34 - 8
Quad 35 - 39 - 11
Quad 47 - 116 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 242   Umass Lowell L 68-76 87%     0 - 1 -13.1 -10.0 -2.9
  Nov 26, 2020 219   Towson W 79-68 85%     1 - 1 +7.2 +9.3 -1.3
  Nov 27, 2020 8   Virginia W 61-60 17%     2 - 1 +18.4 +4.0 +14.5
  Nov 29, 2020 67   Rhode Island L 71-84 46%     2 - 2 -4.7 -2.4 -1.2
  Dec 02, 2020 99   @ Nevada W 85-60 53%     3 - 2 +31.7 +11.4 +19.2
  Dec 04, 2020 332   @ Cal Poly W 88-60 95%     4 - 2 +16.4 +1.8 +12.1
  Dec 10, 2020 270   Long Beach St. W 107-62 92%     5 - 2 +36.4 +16.1 +15.3
  Dec 13, 2020 130   @ California L 70-72 62%     5 - 3 +2.3 +4.3 -2.2
  Dec 17, 2020 19   @ Oregon L 64-74 20%     5 - 4 +6.3 -2.5 +8.9
  Dec 20, 2020 144   Grand Canyon W 68-65 72%     6 - 4 +4.4 -2.8 +7.3
  Dec 31, 2020 206   San Diego W 70-62 87%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +3.1 -5.2 +8.1
  Jan 02, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 62-85 5%     7 - 5 1 - 1 +2.7 -4.9 +8.7
  Jan 07, 2021 287   Portland W 88-64 93%     8 - 5 2 - 1 +14.5 +6.5 +6.6
  Jan 10, 2021 134   @ Loyola Marymount L 60-68 62%     8 - 6 2 - 2 -3.9 -10.7 +7.2
  Jan 14, 2021 287   @ Portland W 79-63 89%     9 - 6 3 - 2 +10.1 +4.4 +5.7
  Jan 16, 2021 34   BYU L 63-72 39%     9 - 7 3 - 3 +1.2 -1.3 +2.0
  Jan 21, 2021 164   @ Santa Clara W 73-50 71%     10 - 7 4 - 3 +24.6 +7.5 +17.9
  Jan 23, 2021 84   St. Mary's W 64-62 63%    
  Jan 30, 2021 34   @ BYU L 68-75 23%    
  Feb 04, 2021 133   @ Pacific W 67-64 57%    
  Feb 06, 2021 131   @ Pepperdine W 76-73 57%    
  Feb 09, 2021 131   Pepperdine W 78-71 77%    
  Feb 13, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 72-87 10%    
  Feb 18, 2021 134   Loyola Marymount W 71-64 77%    
  Feb 25, 2021 84   @ St. Mary's L 63-64 41%    
  Feb 27, 2021 164   Santa Clara W 73-64 84%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.5 5.7 2.4 0.3 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.1 18.9 16.1 5.1 0.3 45.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 11.5 6.3 0.5 0.0 20.2 4th
5th 0.4 5.7 4.7 0.3 11.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.4 0.3 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.3 11.5 21.6 26.5 21.2 10.8 2.7 0.3 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 9.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.3% 93.8% 4.8% 89.0% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.5%
12-4 2.7% 70.0% 5.1% 64.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.8 68.4%
11-5 10.8% 37.0% 3.4% 33.6% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.1 6.8 34.7%
10-6 21.2% 14.1% 2.6% 11.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 18.2 11.8%
9-7 26.5% 4.0% 1.8% 2.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 25.4 2.2%
8-8 21.6% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 21.3 0.3%
7-9 11.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 0.0%
6-10 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
5-11 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 10.7% 2.0% 8.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.4 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 89.3 8.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 7.6 3.2 14.3 33.3 27.0 19.0 1.6 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 88.2% 8.2 3.9 2.0 11.8 37.3 21.6 9.8 2.0
Lose Out 0.1%