San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#322
Expected Predictive Rating-13.7#323
Pace81.0#14
Improvement+0.7#129

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#270
First Shot-3.6#263
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#176
Layup/Dunks-3.6#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#193
Freethrows+0.5#148
Improvement+1.0#93

Defense
Total Defense-7.9#337
First Shot-6.7#331
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#253
Layups/Dunks-1.9#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#270
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#265
Freethrows-1.1#247
Improvement-0.4#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 84.4% 59.0% 91.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 20.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 7
Quad 20 - 20 - 9
Quad 30 - 50 - 15
Quad 42 - 62 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 11, 2020 85   @ St. Mary's L 61-96 4%     0 - 1 -26.6 -7.8 -17.9
  Dec 13, 2020 332   @ Cal Poly L 71-73 50%     0 - 2 -13.5 -14.2 +0.9
  Dec 21, 2020 39   @ Utah St. L 62-107 2%     0 - 3 0 - 1 -32.0 -7.9 -18.9
  Dec 23, 2020 39   @ Utah St. L 52-85 2%     0 - 4 0 - 2 -20.0 -18.5 +3.4
  Dec 31, 2020 44   Boise St. L 54-106 3%     0 - 5 0 - 3 -40.9 -22.2 -10.9
  Jan 02, 2021 44   Boise St. L 86-87 3%     0 - 6 0 - 4 +10.1 +13.5 -3.3
  Jan 08, 2021 173   @ Fresno St. L 64-79 13%     0 - 7 0 - 5 -14.5 -6.9 -8.0
  Jan 10, 2021 173   @ Fresno St. L 65-80 13%     0 - 8 0 - 6 -14.5 -7.7 -6.7
  Jan 14, 2021 73   Colorado St. L 57-90 5%     0 - 9 0 - 7 -25.0 -14.6 -8.6
  Jan 16, 2021 73   Colorado St. L 61-88 5%     0 - 10 0 - 8 -19.0 -5.9 -13.8
  Jan 21, 2021 252   @ New Mexico L 73-81 21%    
  Jan 23, 2021 252   @ New Mexico L 73-81 21%    
  Jan 28, 2021 246   Air Force L 70-75 37%    
  Jan 30, 2021 246   Air Force L 70-75 37%    
  Feb 08, 2021 45   @ San Diego St. L 60-84 1%    
  Feb 10, 2021 45   @ San Diego St. L 60-84 1%    
  Feb 13, 2021 103   Nevada L 74-89 12%    
  Feb 15, 2021 103   Nevada L 74-89 11%    
  Feb 19, 2021 114   UNLV L 73-87 13%    
  Feb 21, 2021 114   UNLV L 73-87 12%    
  Feb 25, 2021 200   @ Wyoming L 78-88 14%    
  Feb 27, 2021 200   @ Wyoming L 78-88 14%    
Projected Record 2 - 20 2 - 18




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.6 2.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.4 4.7 9.4 4.8 0.6 0.0 19.9 10th
11th 15.1 27.0 21.9 7.6 0.7 0.0 72.2 11th
Total 15.1 27.4 26.6 17.5 8.3 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 1.1% 1.1
5-15 3.5% 3.5
4-16 8.3% 8.3
3-17 17.5% 17.5
2-18 26.6% 26.6
1-19 27.4% 27.4
0-20 15.1% 15.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 14.2%