South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#203
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#248
Pace65.1#285
Improvement+0.5#146

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#123
First Shot+2.2#115
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#180
Layup/Dunks+0.2#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#91
Freethrows+0.6#140
Improvement-2.0#298

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#302
First Shot-3.9#293
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#252
Layups/Dunks+8.4#5
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-16.5#347
Freethrows+1.8#74
Improvement+2.5#27
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 14.8% 19.0% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 29.3% 36.4% 12.0%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 3.5% 12.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 46 - 49 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 179   Florida Atlantic W 68-66 51%     1 - 0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.7
  Nov 29, 2020 192   Jacksonville St. L 73-77 55%     1 - 1 -8.2 +2.7 -11.2
  Dec 04, 2020 64   @ Auburn L 81-90 11%     1 - 2 +1.6 +11.9 -10.2
  Dec 12, 2020 217   @ Southern Miss W 76-75 45%     2 - 2 -0.7 +6.2 -6.9
  Dec 19, 2020 331   @ Alabama A&M L 90-93 2OT 79%     2 - 3 -14.6 -6.1 -7.8
  Jan 01, 2021 255   @ Georgia Southern W 88-59 54%     3 - 3 1 - 0 +25.0 +19.2 +7.4
  Jan 02, 2021 255   @ Georgia Southern L 49-62 54%     3 - 4 1 - 1 -17.0 -20.4 +2.2
  Jan 08, 2021 139   @ Coastal Carolina L 65-78 26%     3 - 5 1 - 2 -9.3 -7.0 -2.3
  Jan 09, 2021 139   @ Coastal Carolina L 69-83 26%     3 - 6 1 - 3 -10.3 -0.3 -10.6
  Jan 15, 2021 197   Appalachian St. W 73-64 56%     4 - 6 2 - 3 +4.5 +0.7 +4.4
  Jan 16, 2021 197   Appalachian St. L 77-83 56%     4 - 7 2 - 4 -10.5 +4.7 -15.4
  Jan 22, 2021 255   Georgia Southern W 72-67 71%    
  Jan 23, 2021 255   Georgia Southern W 72-67 71%    
  Jan 29, 2021 105   @ Georgia St. L 70-79 16%    
  Jan 30, 2021 105   @ Georgia St. L 70-79 17%    
  Feb 05, 2021 139   Coastal Carolina L 73-76 44%    
  Feb 06, 2021 139   Coastal Carolina L 73-76 44%    
  Feb 11, 2021 290   Troy W 72-65 77%    
  Feb 13, 2021 290   @ Troy W 70-67 57%    
  Feb 19, 2021 197   @ Appalachian St. L 69-71 38%    
  Feb 20, 2021 197   @ Appalachian St. L 69-71 39%    
  Feb 26, 2021 105   Georgia St. L 72-78 34%    
  Feb 27, 2021 105   Georgia St. L 72-78 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 14 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.8 3.0 0.2 7.5 5th
6th 0.3 4.1 6.1 1.0 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.2 3.6 8.0 3.0 0.1 15.0 7th
8th 0.5 4.1 10.2 5.3 0.6 20.6 8th
9th 0.3 3.0 7.7 4.8 0.3 0.0 16.2 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 4.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.5 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.4 12th
Total 0.2 1.6 4.7 10.5 15.8 19.6 18.2 14.4 8.8 4.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 77.1% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 30.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 5.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 28.3% 28.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.4% 9.3% 9.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
11-7 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.2
10-8 8.8% 8.8
9-9 14.4% 14.4
8-10 18.2% 18.2
7-11 19.6% 19.6
6-12 15.8% 15.8
5-13 10.5% 10.5
4-14 4.7% 4.7
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 50.0% 13.1 47.4 2.6
Lose Out 0.2%