South Carolina Upstate
Big South
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.5#318
Expected Predictive Rating-12.3#315
Pace70.4#166
Improvement+1.8#70

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#288
First Shot-2.5#243
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#283
Layup/Dunks-2.5#264
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#64
Freethrows-1.1#244
Improvement+0.1#164

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#317
First Shot-4.5#304
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#259
Layups/Dunks-5.5#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#257
Freethrows-0.1#185
Improvement+1.8#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 4.7% 7.8% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 1.2% 11.8%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 46 - 97 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 80   @ Furman L 63-91 5%     0 - 1 -19.3 -15.7 -0.2
  Dec 02, 2020 163   Eastern Kentucky L 78-95 20%     0 - 2 -18.7 -5.0 -11.2
  Dec 05, 2020 253   Georgia Southern L 69-72 39%     0 - 3 -10.6 -8.9 -1.5
  Dec 12, 2020 109   Winthrop L 77-95 11%     0 - 4 0 - 1 -15.4 -2.2 -11.5
  Dec 13, 2020 109   Winthrop L 77-107 11%     0 - 5 0 - 2 -27.4 -1.2 -23.8
  Dec 15, 2020 122   @ UNC Greensboro L 57-65 8%     0 - 6 -2.8 -11.7 +9.0
  Dec 23, 2020 5   @ Tennessee L 60-80 1%     0 - 7 -0.6 +4.1 -6.6
  Dec 30, 2020 278   @ High Point L 52-63 31%     0 - 8 0 - 3 -16.4 -13.1 -5.3
  Dec 31, 2020 278   @ High Point W 60-51 31%     1 - 8 1 - 3 +3.6 -11.1 +15.3
  Jan 04, 2021 304   Longwood W 71-69 50%     2 - 8 2 - 3 -8.6 +2.2 -10.6
  Jan 05, 2021 304   Longwood W 65-59 50%     3 - 8 3 - 3 -4.6 -7.0 +2.9
  Jan 14, 2021 311   Hampton L 68-69 54%     3 - 9 3 - 4 -12.5 -11.6 -0.9
  Jan 15, 2021 311   Hampton L 74-84 54%     3 - 10 3 - 5 -21.5 -6.9 -14.3
  Jan 19, 2021 336   @ Charleston Southern W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 20, 2021 336   @ Charleston Southern W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 24, 2021 218   Gardner-Webb L 71-76 37%    
  Jan 25, 2021 218   Gardner-Webb L 71-76 37%    
  Jan 29, 2021 243   @ Radford L 63-70 21%    
  Jan 30, 2021 243   @ Radford L 63-70 21%    
  Feb 04, 2021 221   UNC Asheville L 73-78 37%    
  Feb 05, 2021 221   UNC Asheville L 73-78 37%    
  Feb 18, 2021 270   @ Campbell L 67-73 26%    
  Feb 19, 2021 270   @ Campbell L 67-73 26%    
Projected Record 6 - 17 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 1.6 0.2 3.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 4.0 0.5 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 6.9 1.6 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 3.1 9.1 4.4 0.1 16.9 7th
8th 0.2 3.5 10.9 7.0 0.6 0.0 22.2 8th
9th 0.2 4.0 11.6 7.7 1.2 0.0 24.7 9th
10th 1.7 5.3 3.0 0.3 10.3 10th
11th 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.7 11th
Total 2.9 10.1 18.3 22.1 19.9 14.4 7.6 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 10.3% 10.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 1.1% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.1 1.1
10-10 3.3% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 3.2
9-11 7.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 7.4
8-12 14.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 14.2
7-13 19.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 19.7
6-14 22.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 22.1
5-15 18.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.3
4-16 10.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.1
3-17 2.9% 2.9
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.2%