South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#102
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#70
Pace72.2#117
Improvement-2.2#287

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#49
First Shot+6.4#35
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#212
Layup/Dunks+1.9#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#49
Freethrows+1.1#110
Improvement-0.3#190

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#198
First Shot-2.6#260
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#78
Layups/Dunks+1.7#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#319
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#255
Freethrows+0.7#145
Improvement-1.9#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.4% 44.2% 34.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 14.1
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 98.7%
Conference Champion 49.6% 51.9% 24.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 1.3%
First Round43.2% 44.1% 33.9%
Second Round7.4% 7.7% 4.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 1.9% 2.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 91.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 35 - 37 - 5
Quad 411 - 118 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 17   West Virginia L 71-79 17%     0 - 1 +6.9 +4.7 +2.2
  Nov 26, 2020 35   Utah St. W 83-59 25%     1 - 1 +35.8 +19.1 +16.7
  Nov 27, 2020 84   St. Mary's L 59-72 43%     1 - 2 -6.4 -9.5 +3.2
  Dec 02, 2020 111   @ Iowa St. W 71-68 45%     2 - 2 +9.1 -1.8 +10.8
  Dec 04, 2020 118   @ Bradley W 88-84 47%     3 - 2 +9.5 +14.2 -4.9
  Dec 10, 2020 158   North Dakota St. W 77-75 67%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +2.3 +5.4 -3.1
  Dec 11, 2020 279   North Dakota W 74-62 87%     5 - 2 2 - 0 +4.7 -2.0 +6.5
  Dec 12, 2020 165   South Dakota L 78-91 70%     5 - 3 2 - 1 -13.7 -0.4 -12.6
  Jan 08, 2021 317   Western Illinois W 83-77 94%     6 - 3 3 - 1 -6.7 +0.3 -7.2
  Jan 09, 2021 317   Western Illinois W 92-63 94%     7 - 3 4 - 1 +16.3 +7.4 +7.4
  Jan 22, 2021 279   North Dakota W 80-66 91%    
  Jan 23, 2021 279   North Dakota W 80-66 93%    
  Jan 29, 2021 326   @ Denver W 86-71 90%    
  Jan 30, 2021 326   @ Denver W 86-71 91%    
  Feb 05, 2021 165   South Dakota W 81-74 79%    
  Feb 06, 2021 165   South Dakota W 81-74 78%    
  Feb 13, 2021 159   @ Oral Roberts W 84-81 55%    
  Feb 14, 2021 159   @ Oral Roberts W 84-81 57%    
  Feb 19, 2021 158   @ North Dakota St. W 73-70 55%    
  Feb 20, 2021 158   @ North Dakota St. W 73-70 55%    
  Feb 26, 2021 235   UMKC W 74-63 88%    
  Feb 27, 2021 235   UMKC W 74-63 87%    
Projected Record 16 - 6 13 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.9 6.8 19.0 16.4 6.6 49.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 8.2 11.4 4.6 0.6 26.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 6.2 7.7 1.6 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.2 0.9 2.5 2.3 0.4 6.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.8 9.8 17.2 19.7 23.6 17.0 6.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 6.6    6.6
15-1 96.6% 16.4    14.0 2.4
14-2 80.3% 19.0    10.9 7.6 0.5
13-3 34.3% 6.8    1.6 3.7 1.4 0.0
12-4 5.0% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 49.6% 49.6 33.3 13.9 2.3 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.6% 63.2% 60.7% 2.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.4 6.2%
15-1 17.0% 55.1% 54.9% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.5 1.7 7.6 0.5%
14-2 23.6% 50.8% 50.8% 13.4 1.2 5.8 4.3 0.6 0.0 11.6
13-3 19.7% 45.2% 45.2% 13.8 0.3 2.4 5.1 1.0 0.2 10.8
12-4 17.2% 31.7% 31.7% 14.3 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.0 0.2 11.7
11-5 9.8% 21.9% 21.9% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 7.6
10-6 3.8% 23.5% 23.5% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 2.9
9-7 1.6% 17.8% 17.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3
8-8 0.6% 18.8% 18.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
7-9 0.2% 24.3% 24.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 43.4% 43.2% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.5 5.6 13.9 14.1 5.4 1.3 56.6 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 100.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.9 14.4 14.4 26.7 27.8 7.9 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 8.1% 11.7 2.7 5.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 5.5% 10.2 5.1 0.3 0.1