South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#173
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#177
Pace71.5#130
Improvement+2.6#40

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#146
First Shot+2.0#130
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#238
Layup/Dunks-2.3#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#100
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement+1.9#55

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#217
First Shot-3.1#276
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#90
Layups/Dunks+3.8#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#262
Freethrows-4.1#333
Improvement+0.7#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 14.7% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 64.8% 72.4% 42.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 98.8% 96.7%
Conference Champion 14.5% 17.4% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.9% 3.6% 4.8%
First Round11.9% 13.2% 8.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Away) - 74.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 34 - 8
Quad 49 - 413 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 14   Colorado L 61-84 8%     0 - 1 -7.9 -5.2 -2.3
  Nov 27, 2020 51   Drake L 53-69 14%     0 - 2 -5.3 -11.3 +4.6
  Dec 01, 2020 120   @ Nebraska L 69-76 29%     0 - 3 -2.0 -8.5 +7.2
  Dec 10, 2020 278   North Dakota L 71-75 73%     0 - 4 0 - 1 -11.3 -1.5 -9.9
  Dec 11, 2020 158   North Dakota St. L 67-74 46%     0 - 5 0 - 2 -6.8 +0.0 -7.4
  Dec 12, 2020 101   South Dakota St. W 91-78 30%     1 - 5 1 - 2 +17.5 +13.1 +3.8
  Dec 18, 2020 51   Drake L 57-75 17%     1 - 6 -8.9 -13.1 +4.4
  Jan 02, 2021 335   Denver W 93-54 90%     2 - 6 2 - 2 +24.0 +11.4 +12.0
  Jan 03, 2021 335   Denver W 79-57 90%     3 - 6 3 - 2 +7.0 -3.0 +9.5
  Jan 08, 2021 235   @ UMKC W 66-64 59%     4 - 6 4 - 2 -1.2 -0.2 -0.8
  Jan 09, 2021 235   @ UMKC W 68-62 59%     5 - 6 5 - 2 +2.8 +0.9 +2.3
  Jan 22, 2021 321   @ Western Illinois W 81-73 74%    
  Jan 23, 2021 321   @ Western Illinois W 81-73 74%    
  Jan 29, 2021 259   Nebraska Omaha W 79-72 77%    
  Jan 30, 2021 259   Nebraska Omaha W 79-72 77%    
  Feb 05, 2021 101   @ South Dakota St. L 73-80 22%    
  Feb 06, 2021 101   @ South Dakota St. L 73-80 23%    
  Feb 12, 2021 278   @ North Dakota W 74-69 62%    
  Feb 13, 2021 278   @ North Dakota W 74-69 63%    
  Feb 20, 2021 149   Oral Roberts L 78-79 54%    
  Feb 21, 2021 149   Oral Roberts L 78-79 54%    
  Feb 27, 2021 158   North Dakota St. W 70-69 57%    
  Feb 28, 2021 158   North Dakota St. W 70-69 57%    
Projected Record 12 - 11 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.9 4.8 2.2 14.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 6.3 11.0 7.2 1.7 0.0 27.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.5 10.4 11.8 5.2 0.7 0.0 32.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.9 7.5 5.4 1.2 0.0 19.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.2 0.9 0.1 5.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 6.8 12.0 16.9 19.6 18.2 12.8 6.5 2.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 98.1% 2.2    1.9 0.2
15-1 73.9% 4.8    3.1 1.6 0.1
14-2 38.1% 4.9    1.8 2.5 0.5 0.0
13-3 10.7% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1
12-4 1.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 7.3 5.4 1.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.2% 38.5% 38.5% 14.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4
15-1 6.5% 28.6% 28.6% 14.7 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 4.6
14-2 12.8% 21.1% 21.1% 15.1 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.6 10.1
13-3 18.2% 16.1% 16.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.6 15.3
12-4 19.6% 12.1% 12.1% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.9 17.2
11-5 16.9% 7.7% 7.7% 15.9 0.1 1.2 15.6
10-6 12.0% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.8 11.2
9-7 6.8% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.3 6.5
8-8 3.3% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 3.2
7-9 1.0% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
6-10 0.2% 0.2
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.3 1.7 4.5 6.9 86.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.8 3.4 21.6 65.2 9.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%