Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#308
Expected Predictive Rating-10.2#298
Pace67.8#235
Improvement-2.5#301

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#301
First Shot-5.8#302
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#143
Layup/Dunks-3.0#276
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#197
Freethrows-0.4#203
Improvement-3.0#331

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#292
First Shot-4.3#301
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#174
Layups/Dunks-3.6#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#69
Freethrows-4.0#334
Improvement+0.5#145
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.0% 4.2% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 9.2% 16.6% 5.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.2% 4.7% 17.4%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Away) - 33.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 48 - 129 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 241   @ UMKC W 71-66 27%     1 - 0 +1.8 -3.5 +5.1
  Dec 02, 2020 169   Southern Illinois L 79-87 OT 26%     1 - 1 -10.6 -4.8 -4.9
  Dec 07, 2020 208   Lipscomb W 82-77 33%     2 - 1 +0.0 +8.6 -8.3
  Dec 09, 2020 208   @ Lipscomb L 74-80 OT 22%     2 - 2 -7.5 -6.3 -0.9
  Dec 15, 2020 223   @ Evansville L 63-66 OT 25%     2 - 3 -5.3 -9.7 +4.3
  Dec 18, 2020 338   Tennessee Martin L 67-69 73%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -17.8 -12.3 -5.6
  Dec 22, 2020 133   @ Indiana St. L 66-72 11%     2 - 5 -2.1 -5.7 +3.8
  Dec 30, 2020 309   @ Tennessee Tech L 63-72 44%     2 - 6 0 - 2 -16.9 -15.5 -1.0
  Jan 02, 2021 290   Tennessee St. W 83-79 2OT 50%     3 - 6 1 - 2 -5.6 -4.9 -1.4
  Jan 07, 2021 98   @ Belmont L 66-77 7%     3 - 7 1 - 3 -4.2 -8.5 +4.8
  Jan 16, 2021 195   Morehead St. L 50-64 31%     3 - 8 1 - 4 -18.4 -16.7 -3.2
  Jan 19, 2021 290   @ Tennessee St. L 65-68 33%    
  Jan 21, 2021 195   @ Morehead St. L 60-69 18%    
  Jan 23, 2021 163   @ Eastern Kentucky L 68-79 12%    
  Jan 26, 2021 338   @ Tennessee Martin W 74-71 56%    
  Jan 28, 2021 305   SIU Edwardsville W 69-68 60%    
  Jan 30, 2021 236   Eastern Illinois L 70-73 43%    
  Feb 01, 2021 156   Murray St. L 64-72 27%    
  Feb 04, 2021 309   Tennessee Tech W 70-68 62%    
  Feb 06, 2021 205   Jacksonville St. L 65-70 38%    
  Feb 11, 2021 156   @ Murray St. L 62-73 12%    
  Feb 13, 2021 185   @ Austin Peay L 66-75 17%    
  Feb 16, 2021 185   Austin Peay L 68-74 34%    
  Feb 18, 2021 163   Eastern Kentucky L 70-78 28%    
  Feb 19, 2021 195   Morehead St. L 62-67 36%    
  Feb 25, 2021 236   @ Eastern Illinois L 68-75 24%    
  Feb 27, 2021 305   @ SIU Edwardsville L 68-70 38%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 6 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.2 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.7 4.2 6.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 15.5 7th
8th 1.0 6.0 8.1 3.4 0.4 0.0 18.8 8th
9th 0.8 6.2 8.0 2.9 0.3 18.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.7 6.5 2.3 0.2 14.4 10th
11th 0.5 3.2 5.2 1.8 0.1 0.0 10.8 11th
12th 0.6 2.0 2.9 0.9 0.1 6.5 12th
Total 0.6 2.5 6.7 11.6 15.6 17.1 15.6 12.6 8.6 5.0 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
11-9 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.5
10-10 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.0
9-11 8.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.6
8-12 12.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.5
7-13 15.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
6-14 17.1% 17.1
5-15 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.6
4-16 11.6% 11.6
3-17 6.7% 6.7
2-18 2.5% 2.5
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%