Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#170
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#109
Pace66.7#255
Improvement-1.6#262

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#173
First Shot+4.7#58
After Offensive Rebound-4.8#344
Layup/Dunks+0.0#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#29
Freethrows+1.7#75
Improvement-1.3#261

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#186
First Shot-1.3#206
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#138
Layups/Dunks+0.9#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#314
Freethrows+1.4#92
Improvement-0.4#213
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.3% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 41.4% 55.8% 24.7%
.500 or above in Conference 40.0% 54.2% 23.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.7% 3.3% 14.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.3% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 21 - 32 - 9
Quad 32 - 34 - 12
Quad 49 - 313 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 303   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 87-79 OT 73%     1 - 0 +0.8 +1.3 -1.5
  Dec 11, 2020 156   Murray St. W 70-66 52%     2 - 0 +2.6 -3.3 +5.8
  Dec 17, 2020 279   North Dakota W 85-64 78%     3 - 0 +11.9 +10.4 +1.8
  Dec 18, 2020 279   North Dakota W 62-50 78%     4 - 0 +2.9 -10.6 +14.1
  Dec 21, 2020 80   @ Butler W 76-73 19%     5 - 0 +11.6 +12.1 -0.3
  Dec 27, 2020 238   Evansville W 63-57 72%     6 - 0 1 - 0 -0.8 -7.1 +7.0
  Dec 28, 2020 238   Evansville L 72-84 72%     6 - 1 1 - 1 -18.8 +1.4 -21.2
  Jan 03, 2021 46   @ Drake L 55-73 11%     6 - 2 1 - 2 -5.2 -6.1 -1.3
  Jan 04, 2021 46   @ Drake L 55-86 11%     6 - 3 1 - 3 -18.2 -9.6 -10.5
  Jan 30, 2021 146   Northern Iowa L 72-73 54%    
  Jan 31, 2021 146   Northern Iowa L 72-73 53%    
  Feb 06, 2021 118   @ Bradley L 64-70 23%    
  Feb 07, 2021 118   @ Bradley L 64-70 24%    
  Feb 10, 2021 92   @ Missouri St. L 68-76 17%    
  Feb 13, 2021 207   Illinois St. W 73-69 68%    
  Feb 14, 2021 207   Illinois St. W 73-69 68%    
  Feb 17, 2021 92   Missouri St. L 69-74 37%    
  Feb 26, 2021 28   @ Loyola Chicago L 58-73 6%    
  Feb 27, 2021 28   @ Loyola Chicago L 58-73 7%    
  Mar 08, 2021 146   @ Northern Iowa L 71-75 31%    
  Mar 08, 2021 129   @ Indiana St. L 66-71 27%    
  Mar 08, 2021 46   @ Drake L 63-77 10%    
  Mar 08, 2021 238   Evansville W 67-61 74%    
  Mar 09, 2021 146   Northern Iowa L 72-73 53%    
  Mar 09, 2021 129   Indiana St. L 68-70 48%    
  Mar 09, 2021 46   Drake L 65-75 21%    
  Mar 09, 2021 238   @ Evansville W 65-63 55%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 8 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.9 4.0 0.8 0.2 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.9 4.8 0.5 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 6.1 5.4 0.9 0.0 14.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 7.9 5.5 1.2 16.7 7th
8th 0.2 3.0 6.3 4.5 0.7 0.0 14.8 8th
9th 0.5 1.9 4.1 6.2 3.0 0.4 16.1 9th
10th 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.2 10th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.1 5.9 9.8 11.4 14.5 13.7 14.2 11.7 7.1 4.4 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 0.0%
16-2 97.5% 0.0    0.0
15-3 0.0%
14-4 4.5% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 11.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.0% 2.5% 2.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 2.5%
15-3 0.2% 0.2
14-4 0.9% 13.6% 13.6% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.7
13-5 1.6% 2.6% 2.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 1.5
12-6 4.4% 3.6% 3.6% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.3
11-7 7.1% 2.2% 2.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
10-8 11.7% 1.0% 1.0% 13.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.5
9-9 14.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.1 0.0 14.0
8-10 13.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 13.6
7-11 14.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.5
6-12 11.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.4
5-13 9.8% 9.8
4-14 5.9% 5.9
3-15 3.1% 3.1
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%