Southern Miss
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#223
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#256
Pace64.3#299
Improvement+4.5#16

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#282
First Shot-3.5#271
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#226
Layup/Dunks-5.1#323
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#281
Freethrows-1.8#286
Improvement+3.6#19

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#165
First Shot-1.1#199
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#78
Layups/Dunks+5.0#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#283
Freethrows-1.5#274
Improvement+0.9#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 5.6% 12.5% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 12.3% 24.5% 6.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 1.8% 8.3%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 32.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 73 - 10
Quad 46 - 59 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 290   @ Jacksonville L 51-66 57%     0 - 1 -20.9 -20.6 -1.3
  Dec 09, 2020 188   @ Tulane L 38-58 36%     0 - 2 -20.3 -30.6 +9.4
  Dec 12, 2020 199   South Alabama L 75-76 52%     0 - 3 -5.7 -0.8 -4.9
  Dec 15, 2020 311   @ Lamar W 66-63 66%     1 - 3 -5.2 -6.3 +1.2
  Dec 19, 2020 298   Louisiana Monroe W 60-47 73%     2 - 3 +2.6 -10.2 +14.2
  Jan 01, 2021 147   UTEP W 74-66 OT 38%     3 - 3 1 - 0 +7.1 -7.0 +13.4
  Jan 02, 2021 147   UTEP L 62-77 38%     3 - 4 1 - 1 -15.9 -3.5 -14.6
  Jan 08, 2021 98   @ UAB L 60-72 14%     3 - 5 1 - 2 -4.7 +2.2 -9.0
  Jan 09, 2021 98   @ UAB L 58-62 14%     3 - 6 1 - 3 +3.3 -0.7 +3.3
  Jan 15, 2021 272   Middle Tennessee W 84-54 67%     4 - 6 2 - 3 +21.4 +8.5 +11.8
  Jan 16, 2021 272   Middle Tennessee W 64-59 67%     5 - 6 3 - 3 -3.6 -11.6 +7.8
  Jan 22, 2021 200   @ Texas San Antonio L 64-70 38%     5 - 7 3 - 4 -7.1 -11.4 +4.2
  Jan 23, 2021 200   @ Texas San Antonio L 72-78 38%     5 - 8 3 - 5 -7.1 -5.5 -1.5
  Jan 28, 2021 114   Louisiana Tech L 62-68 32%    
  Jan 30, 2021 114   @ Louisiana Tech L 60-70 15%    
  Feb 05, 2021 190   @ Rice L 66-70 33%    
  Feb 06, 2021 190   @ Rice L 66-70 33%    
  Feb 12, 2021 90   North Texas L 57-65 26%    
  Feb 13, 2021 90   North Texas L 57-65 26%    
  Feb 18, 2021 220   @ Florida International L 69-71 39%    
  Feb 20, 2021 220   @ Florida International L 69-71 38%    
  Feb 26, 2021 178   Florida Atlantic L 65-66 51%    
  Feb 27, 2021 178   Florida Atlantic L 65-66 50%    
Projected Record 8 - 15 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.2 2.2 4th
5th 0.5 2.2 1.2 0.1 4.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 3.4 0.3 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 5.7 1.3 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.9 7.1 4.1 0.3 12.3 8th
9th 0.2 4.5 7.9 0.9 13.4 9th
10th 1.8 9.5 2.8 0.1 14.3 10th
11th 1.1 8.1 6.2 0.3 15.7 11th
12th 0.1 3.7 6.4 1.0 0.0 11.2 12th
13th 1.9 4.7 1.7 0.0 8.3 13th
14th 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.8 14th
Total 2.9 10.3 18.4 22.1 20.3 13.8 7.7 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 9.4% 0.0    0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 9.4% 9.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 1.0% 4.1% 4.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-8 3.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.5
9-9 7.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 7.6
8-10 13.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.7
7-11 20.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.2
6-12 22.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.0
5-13 18.4% 18.4
4-14 10.3% 10.3
3-15 2.9% 2.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.9%