Southern Utah
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#193
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#115
Pace72.1#114
Improvement-2.0#273

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#112
First Shot+1.8#125
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#161
Layup/Dunks-0.7#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#135
Freethrows+4.7#4
Improvement-3.4#336

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#289
First Shot-6.3#329
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#52
Layups/Dunks-2.0#242
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#239
Freethrows-1.2#251
Improvement+1.3#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.0% 36.0% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 97.6% 99.4% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 97.3% 85.9%
Conference Champion 36.6% 47.3% 22.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.2% 7.3% 4.8%
First Round24.3% 32.9% 12.7%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 57.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 23 - 4
Quad 411 - 314 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 128   @ Loyola Marymount L 83-85 26%     0 - 1 +2.5 +10.6 -8.0
  Dec 03, 2020 163   Montana W 64-63 48%     1 - 1 1 - 0 -0.9 -2.5 +1.7
  Dec 05, 2020 163   Montana W 75-74 48%     2 - 1 2 - 0 -0.9 +3.8 -4.7
  Dec 09, 2020 233   @ Utah Valley W 81-71 53%     3 - 1 +6.9 +3.0 +3.4
  Dec 17, 2020 340   Dixie St. W 85-78 89%     4 - 1 -9.0 +4.3 -13.7
  Jan 07, 2021 338   Idaho W 85-80 89%     5 - 1 3 - 0 -10.5 +4.5 -14.9
  Jan 09, 2021 338   Idaho W 83-67 89%     6 - 1 4 - 0 +0.5 -0.9 +0.8
  Jan 14, 2021 137   @ Eastern Washington L 63-75 28%     6 - 2 4 - 1 -8.3 -14.1 +6.7
  Jan 16, 2021 137   @ Eastern Washington W 99-94 28%     7 - 2 5 - 1 +8.7 +15.8 -7.6
  Jan 21, 2021 155   @ Weber St. L 67-91 33%     7 - 3 5 - 2 -21.9 -10.1 -9.9
  Jan 23, 2021 155   Weber St. W 77-72 46%     8 - 3 6 - 2 +3.8 +1.6 +2.0
  Jan 28, 2021 280   @ Idaho St. W 73-70 57%    
  Jan 30, 2021 280   @ Idaho St. W 73-70 57%    
  Feb 04, 2021 204   Northern Colorado W 74-72 63%    
  Feb 06, 2021 204   Northern Colorado W 74-72 63%    
  Feb 18, 2021 217   Sacramento St. W 72-69 66%    
  Feb 20, 2021 217   Sacramento St. W 72-69 66%    
  Feb 24, 2021 301   Northern Arizona W 77-69 81%    
  Feb 26, 2021 301   @ Northern Arizona W 75-70 62%    
  Mar 04, 2021 258   @ Portland St. W 78-76 53%    
  Mar 06, 2021 258   @ Portland St. W 78-76 53%    
Projected Record 14 - 7 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.0 10.8 11.9 7.3 2.4 36.6 1st
2nd 0.1 3.7 11.4 8.8 3.5 0.7 0.1 28.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 7.6 4.3 0.6 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.2 3.7 4.1 0.4 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 1.2 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.1 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.2 10.0 16.2 20.1 20.2 15.4 8.0 2.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 97.3% 2.4    2.2 0.2
15-5 90.9% 7.3    6.1 1.2 0.0
14-6 77.1% 11.9    8.2 3.6 0.2
13-7 53.7% 10.8    4.1 5.1 1.5 0.1
12-8 19.8% 4.0    0.3 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-9 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.6% 36.6 20.9 11.4 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.5% 92.4% 92.4% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.2
15-5 8.0% 80.3% 80.3% 15.1 0.0 1.0 3.7 1.7 1.6
14-6 15.4% 59.7% 59.7% 15.5 0.0 0.3 3.7 5.2 6.2
13-7 20.2% 34.5% 34.5% 15.8 0.0 1.3 5.6 13.2
12-8 20.1% 9.9% 9.9% 15.9 0.1 1.9 18.1
11-9 16.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 16.1
10-10 10.0% 10.0
9-11 5.2% 5.2
8-12 1.8% 1.8
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.0% 27.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.3 2.6 9.5 14.5 73.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 92.4% 14.2 0.4 11.1 51.6 28.4 1.0
Lose Out 0.1%