St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#58
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#24
Pace63.8#310
Improvement+1.5#93

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#77
First Shot+1.8#128
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#47
Layup/Dunks+7.7#5
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#300
Freethrows-1.7#281
Improvement+0.5#124

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#40
First Shot+4.1#59
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#63
Layups/Dunks+1.4#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#51
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#274
Freethrows+3.3#15
Improvement+1.0#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 1.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.2% 8.2% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 8.7% 20.3% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.1% 74.1% 43.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.9% 66.4% 32.7%
Average Seed 9.2 8.2 10.1
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 98.2% 89.3%
Conference Champion 30.6% 50.2% 21.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.0% 8.0% 10.9%
First Round47.8% 70.2% 37.2%
Second Round21.6% 35.1% 15.2%
Sweet Sixteen6.6% 11.6% 4.2%
Elite Eight1.9% 3.6% 1.1%
Final Four0.6% 1.2% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 32.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 14 - 3
Quad 35 - 19 - 5
Quad 45 - 014 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 15, 2020 118   Akron W 81-74 73%     1 - 0 +10.6 +2.1 +7.9
  Dec 19, 2020 170   Hofstra W 77-69 87%     2 - 0 +5.5 -0.9 +6.1
  Dec 30, 2020 68   @ Rhode Island L 57-63 49%     2 - 1 0 - 1 +4.1 -9.2 +13.3
  Jan 02, 2021 61   @ Richmond W 69-66 44%     3 - 1 1 - 1 +14.4 +5.9 +8.7
  Jan 06, 2021 203   Saint Joseph's W 83-57 91%     4 - 1 2 - 1 +21.0 +5.0 +15.7
  Jan 13, 2021 278   @ Fordham W 68-54 92%     5 - 1 3 - 1 +8.6 +9.0 +1.8
  Jan 15, 2021 127   Duquesne W 62-48 81%     6 - 1 4 - 1 +14.7 +0.3 +16.5
  Jan 20, 2021 66   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-54 62%     7 - 1 5 - 1 +22.7 +7.0 +16.4
  Jan 23, 2021 33   @ Saint Louis L 66-70 32%    
  Jan 23, 2021 127   @ Duquesne W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 30, 2021 69   @ Davidson L 66-67 44%    
  Feb 03, 2021 203   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 06, 2021 144   George Mason W 69-58 87%    
  Feb 14, 2021 99   @ Massachusetts W 73-70 56%    
  Feb 21, 2021 205   @ George Washington W 76-65 82%    
  Feb 24, 2021 173   La Salle W 73-60 90%    
  Feb 28, 2021 88   Dayton W 67-61 73%    
Projected Record 13 - 4 10 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.0 10.0 14.3 5.4 30.6 1st
2nd 0.1 7.8 14.7 2.9 25.4 2nd
3rd 1.5 11.7 3.8 0.1 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 5.2 5.0 0.2 10.5 4th
5th 0.7 5.6 0.7 7.0 5th
6th 2.0 2.1 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 0.2 2.7 7th
8th 0.5 0.9 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.1 14.8 26.1 28.7 17.2 5.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 5.4    4.6 0.8 0.0
12-6 82.9% 14.3    8.1 5.0 1.0 0.1
11-7 34.7% 10.0    1.3 3.9 3.7 1.0 0.1
10-8 3.7% 1.0    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.6% 30.6 14.1 9.7 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 5.4% 99.3% 33.3% 66.0% 5.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.9%
12-6 17.2% 91.2% 25.4% 65.8% 7.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.5 3.0 2.3 1.4 0.3 1.5 88.2%
11-7 28.7% 67.9% 20.7% 47.2% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 3.2 3.9 5.4 3.3 0.4 9.2 59.5%
10-8 26.1% 37.6% 15.7% 21.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 3.4 0.6 0.0 16.3 25.9%
9-9 14.8% 16.3% 9.3% 7.0% 11.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 12.4 7.7%
8-10 6.1% 5.8% 4.1% 1.7% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.7 1.7%
7-11 1.6% 4.2% 3.2% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.0%
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 53.1% 17.9% 35.2% 9.2 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.3 3.1 3.6 4.8 7.4 8.2 10.4 8.6 1.3 0.1 46.9 42.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 3.1 8.5 25.1 26.4 30.2 6.4 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 5.1 1.4 4.9 26.6 32.9 21.0 9.1 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 5.5 2.8 6.8 22.7 19.9 20.5 17.6 4.5 2.3 1.1 1.7