St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#249
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#239
Pace74.9#57
Improvement+1.3#91

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#222
First Shot-2.2#237
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#160
Layup/Dunks+0.6#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#205
Freethrows-0.2#182
Improvement-2.1#305

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#279
First Shot-2.7#257
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#223
Layups/Dunks-9.3#346
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#161
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#24
Freethrows+0.9#129
Improvement+3.4#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.6% 17.2% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 50.5% 65.5% 38.1%
.500 or above in Conference 70.7% 83.6% 60.1%
Conference Champion 32.4% 46.9% 20.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.4% 5.0% 5.7%
First Round10.6% 14.7% 7.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bryant (Home) - 45.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 48 - 412 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 73   @ Pittsburgh W 80-70 9%     1 - 0 +19.3 +8.9 +9.7
  Nov 28, 2020 169   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 65-80 38%     1 - 1 -17.4 -8.2 -9.1
  Dec 01, 2020 15   @ Virginia L 51-76 3%     1 - 2 -8.4 -6.7 -4.7
  Dec 03, 2020 105   @ Liberty L 62-78 14%     1 - 3 -10.0 -5.3 -5.4
  Dec 08, 2020 254   @ Mount St. Mary's L 57-75 45%     1 - 4 0 - 1 -22.2 -9.1 -15.3
  Jan 07, 2021 212   @ LIU Brooklyn L 75-78 36%     1 - 5 0 - 2 -4.9 -9.4 +5.0
  Jan 08, 2021 212   @ LIU Brooklyn L 58-71 36%     1 - 6 0 - 3 -14.9 -16.0 +1.5
  Jan 14, 2021 177   Bryant W 89-82 40%     2 - 6 1 - 3 +4.1 -3.1 +5.8
  Jan 15, 2021 177   Bryant L 83-86 45%    
  Jan 21, 2021 304   @ Sacred Heart W 76-74 52%    
  Jan 22, 2021 304   @ Sacred Heart W 76-74 53%    
  Jan 26, 2021 301   Fairleigh Dickinson W 83-78 72%    
  Jan 27, 2021 301   Fairleigh Dickinson W 83-78 71%    
  Jan 30, 2021 332   Central Connecticut St. W 80-71 84%    
  Jan 31, 2021 332   Central Connecticut St. W 80-71 83%    
  Feb 04, 2021 312   @ Merrimack W 72-69 56%    
  Feb 05, 2021 312   @ Merrimack W 72-69 55%    
  Feb 11, 2021 291   St. Francis Brooklyn W 80-76 69%    
  Feb 12, 2021 291   St. Francis Brooklyn W 80-76 69%    
  Feb 20, 2021 295   @ Wagner W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 21, 2021 295   @ Wagner W 72-71 49%    
  Feb 25, 2021 254   Mount St. Mary's W 67-65 61%    
Projected Record 11 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.3 8.7 10.5 7.0 3.3 0.6 32.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 8.2 5.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 6.2 5.3 0.7 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.1 3.2 6.2 0.8 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.7 1.6 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.4 3.7 2.2 0.1 6.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 3.2 0.3 5.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.6 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.2 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.9 8.6 11.9 15.6 16.7 15.3 12.0 7.2 3.3 0.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
14-4 99.3% 3.3    3.2 0.1
13-5 96.0% 7.0    6.5 0.5 0.0
12-6 87.4% 10.5    7.2 3.1 0.2 0.0
11-7 57.0% 8.7    2.9 4.0 1.7 0.2 0.0
10-8 13.8% 2.3    0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1
9-9 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 32.4% 32.4 20.4 8.3 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.6% 40.9% 40.9% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
14-4 3.3% 31.8% 31.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 2.2
13-5 7.2% 26.5% 26.5% 14.8 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 5.3
12-6 12.0% 21.3% 21.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 9.5
11-7 15.3% 16.9% 16.9% 15.7 0.0 0.7 1.8 12.7
10-8 16.7% 12.9% 12.9% 15.9 0.2 2.0 14.5
9-9 15.6% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 1.7 13.9
8-10 11.9% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.7 11.2
7-11 8.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.4 8.2
6-12 4.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 4.7
5-13 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.4
4-14 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.4 8.4 86.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.3 9.4 48.2 42.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%