St. Francis Brooklyn
Northeast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#288
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#238
Pace78.2#30
Improvement+3.6#23

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#281
First Shot-6.2#315
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#66
Layup/Dunks-1.7#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#297
Freethrows-1.2#251
Improvement-0.1#185

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#274
First Shot-3.2#270
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#195
Layups/Dunks-5.1#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#49
Freethrows-1.9#288
Improvement+3.7#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 10.1% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 57.1% 73.6% 41.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.4% 81.6% 54.2%
Conference Champion 20.8% 31.6% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.0% 3.7% 2.3%
First Round5.2% 7.6% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 47.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 32 - 43 - 5
Quad 48 - 510 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 08, 2020 170   Bryant L 82-101 31%     0 - 1 0 - 1 -21.6 -8.7 -9.2
  Dec 09, 2020 170   Bryant W 93-91 31%     1 - 1 1 - 1 -0.6 +5.7 -6.5
  Dec 15, 2020 334   @ Central Connecticut St. W 91-86 65%     2 - 1 2 - 1 -6.7 -1.2 -6.2
  Dec 16, 2020 334   @ Central Connecticut St. L 59-78 65%     2 - 2 2 - 2 -30.7 -18.9 -12.0
  Dec 23, 2020 167   St. Peter's L 64-70 31%     2 - 3 -8.4 -10.8 +2.8
  Jan 07, 2021 231   Mount St. Mary's W 70-55 45%     3 - 3 3 - 2 +8.5 -2.9 +11.6
  Jan 08, 2021 231   Mount St. Mary's W 67-55 45%     4 - 3 4 - 2 +5.5 -4.4 +10.3
  Jan 30, 2021 220   LIU Brooklyn L 77-79 48%    
  Feb 04, 2021 293   Wagner W 73-71 62%    
  Feb 05, 2021 293   Wagner W 73-71 61%    
  Feb 11, 2021 257   @ St. Francis (PA) L 74-78 32%    
  Feb 12, 2021 257   @ St. Francis (PA) L 74-78 32%    
  Feb 16, 2021 314   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-79 48%    
  Feb 17, 2021 314   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-79 48%    
  Feb 20, 2021 307   Sacred Heart W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 21, 2021 307   Sacred Heart W 77-73 66%    
  Feb 25, 2021 302   @ Merrimack L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 26, 2021 302   @ Merrimack L 69-70 44%    
Projected Record 10 - 8 10 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 4.7 8.2 4.4 2.1 0.4 20.8 1st
2nd 0.3 6.0 7.4 2.9 0.7 0.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.7 7.5 1.7 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 1.9 8.6 2.4 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.3 5.4 4.3 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 2.4 5.8 0.7 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.0 1.7 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.6 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 2.2 5.1 10.2 14.9 17.8 16.9 13.9 11.1 5.1 2.2 0.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
14-4 98.2% 2.1    1.9 0.2
13-5 86.6% 4.4    3.6 0.9
12-6 74.0% 8.2    4.4 3.3 0.5
11-7 33.9% 4.7    0.8 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.0
10-8 5.0% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.8% 20.8 11.1 6.6 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 9.1% 9.1% 15.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 2.2% 20.4% 20.4% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.7
13-5 5.1% 19.3% 19.3% 15.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 4.1
12-6 11.1% 14.0% 14.0% 15.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 9.6
11-7 13.9% 11.5% 11.5% 15.8 0.3 1.3 12.3
10-8 16.9% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3 15.5
9-9 17.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.5 17.3
8-10 14.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.6 14.3
7-11 10.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.1
6-12 5.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.0
5-13 2.2% 2.2
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.5 1.9 4.8 92.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.3%