St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#79
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#81
Pace80.4#13
Improvement+2.2#57

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#71
First Shot+2.9#93
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#98
Layup/Dunks+3.0#67
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#266
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement-1.2#254

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#107
First Shot+1.9#114
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#125
Layups/Dunks+1.0#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#150
Freethrows+0.5#158
Improvement+3.4#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 2.9% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 2.1% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.2 11.2 13.0
.500 or above 38.9% 40.9% 13.7%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 1.7% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 7.3% 8.4%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round2.3% 2.5% 0.6%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 92.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 7
Quad 22 - 54 - 13
Quad 34 - 18 - 14
Quad 44 - 013 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 176   St. Peter's W 76-75 83%     1 - 0 -2.1 +3.4 -5.6
  Nov 26, 2020 182   La Salle W 82-65 84%     2 - 0 +13.3 -3.1 +13.9
  Nov 30, 2020 106   Boston College W 97-93 59%     3 - 0 +8.5 +7.8 +0.0
  Dec 02, 2020 37   BYU L 68-74 32%     3 - 1 +5.7 -4.3 +10.4
  Dec 06, 2020 250   Stony Brook W 89-66 90%     4 - 1 +15.6 +4.9 +8.3
  Dec 08, 2020 294   Rider W 82-79 93%     5 - 1 -6.8 +1.9 -8.7
  Dec 11, 2020 40   @ Seton Hall L 68-77 27%     5 - 2 0 - 1 +4.3 -1.6 +6.2
  Dec 13, 2020 108   @ Georgetown L 94-97 OT 53%     5 - 3 0 - 2 +3.2 +6.9 -3.2
  Dec 17, 2020 12   Creighton L 76-94 25%     5 - 4 0 - 3 -4.0 +3.1 -5.7
  Dec 20, 2020 108   Georgetown W 94-83 66%     6 - 4 1 - 3 +13.6 +14.3 -1.7
  Jan 06, 2021 48   @ Xavier L 61-69 29%     6 - 5 1 - 4 +4.7 -15.1 +21.0
  Jan 09, 2021 12   @ Creighton L 79-97 16%     6 - 6 1 - 5 -0.3 +9.1 -8.5
  Jan 12, 2021 80   Butler W 69-57 57%     7 - 6 2 - 5 +17.0 +2.9 +14.5
  Jan 16, 2021 56   Marquette L 71-73 46%     7 - 7 2 - 6 +6.1 -0.6 +6.7
  Jan 18, 2021 26   @ Connecticut W 74-70 22%     8 - 7 3 - 6 +19.0 +8.7 +10.2
  Jan 23, 2021 237   Utah Valley W 86-72 93%    
  Jan 27, 2021 109   @ DePaul W 78-77 47%    
  Jan 31, 2021 26   Connecticut L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 03, 2021 6   Villanova L 73-82 22%    
  Feb 06, 2021 53   @ Providence L 74-79 28%    
  Feb 10, 2021 80   @ Butler L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 20, 2021 56   @ Marquette L 75-80 30%    
  Feb 23, 2021 6   @ Villanova L 71-84 10%    
  Mar 03, 2021 53   Providence L 76-78 50%    
  Mar 06, 2021 40   Seton Hall L 77-80 45%    
Projected Record 12 - 13 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.4 1.9 0.6 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.4 3.3 2.4 0.2 6.2 6th
7th 0.5 3.8 5.4 0.7 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 7.6 9.8 3.3 22.1 8th
9th 0.5 5.8 15.8 14.2 4.5 0.3 41.2 9th
10th 1.6 5.4 5.1 1.4 0.1 13.7 10th
11th 1.0 1.1 0.3 2.4 11th
Total 3.1 12.4 22.7 23.7 18.6 12.6 5.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 2.6% 2.6% 8.0 0.0 0.0 2.6%
11-9 0.3% 62.3% 12.3% 50.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 57.0%
10-10 1.3% 58.8% 8.6% 50.2% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 54.9%
9-11 5.2% 18.0% 3.0% 15.1% 11.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 4.2 15.5%
8-12 12.6% 4.0% 1.3% 2.8% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.1 2.8%
7-13 18.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 12.0 0.2 18.5 0.2%
6-14 23.7% 0.7% 0.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 23.6
5-15 22.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.1 22.6
4-16 12.4% 12.4
3-17 3.1% 3.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.8% 0.8% 2.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 97.2 2.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%