St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#82
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#78
Pace60.6#341
Improvement-0.4#192

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#141
First Shot+1.8#131
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#207
Layup/Dunks+8.1#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#113
Freethrows-0.6#215
Improvement-1.3#260

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#41
First Shot+3.0#85
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#28
Layups/Dunks-3.3#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#32
Freethrows+0.7#140
Improvement+0.9#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 22.5% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.2% 20.9% 7.0%
Average Seed 11.2 11.0 11.5
.500 or above 97.0% 99.4% 95.6%
.500 or above in Conference 47.1% 68.7% 34.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four6.5% 10.0% 4.4%
First Round9.9% 16.9% 5.7%
Second Round2.8% 4.9% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Away) - 37.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 33 - 8
Quad 37 - 210 - 10
Quad 47 - 117 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 63   Memphis L 56-73 41%     0 - 1 -7.8 -10.3 +3.2
  Nov 26, 2020 143   Northern Iowa W 66-64 71%     1 - 1 +3.2 -4.9 +8.2
  Nov 27, 2020 102   South Dakota St. W 72-59 57%     2 - 1 +18.0 -3.0 +20.9
  Dec 01, 2020 186   Nicholls St. W 73-50 84%     3 - 1 +19.3 +5.6 +16.0
  Dec 03, 2020 252   Texas Southern W 82-70 90%     4 - 1 +4.6 +15.0 -8.9
  Dec 08, 2020 147   UTEP W 73-61 77%     5 - 1 +11.1 +6.9 +5.5
  Dec 11, 2020 321   San Jose St. W 96-61 96%     6 - 1 +22.3 +12.4 +9.0
  Dec 15, 2020 136   Eastern Washington W 80-75 74%     7 - 1 +5.3 +7.4 -1.9
  Dec 19, 2020 70   Colorado St. W 53-33 53%     8 - 1 +26.2 -12.4 +40.6
  Dec 22, 2020 37   San Diego St. L 49-74 32%     8 - 2 -13.2 -9.1 -8.0
  Dec 30, 2020 214   Sacramento St. W 63-45 88%     9 - 2 +12.3 -2.7 +17.9
  Jan 09, 2021 164   Santa Clara L 64-66 81%     9 - 3 0 - 1 -4.2 -4.6 +0.4
  Jan 14, 2021 32   BYU L 52-62 38%     9 - 4 0 - 2 +0.2 -8.1 +6.8
  Jan 16, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 59-73 9%     9 - 5 0 - 3 +8.1 -4.5 +12.1
  Jan 21, 2021 125   @ Loyola Marymount W 65-61 59%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +8.6 -3.3 +11.8
  Jan 23, 2021 75   @ San Francisco L 62-64 38%    
  Jan 28, 2021 292   Portland W 75-58 95%    
  Jan 30, 2021 134   @ Pacific W 61-58 55%    
  Feb 04, 2021 164   Santa Clara W 67-58 83%    
  Feb 06, 2021 125   Loyola Marymount W 64-58 74%    
  Feb 08, 2021 194   @ San Diego W 68-60 72%    
  Feb 11, 2021 32   @ BYU L 62-69 23%    
  Feb 13, 2021 128   @ Pepperdine W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 18, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 63-82 4%    
  Feb 25, 2021 75   San Francisco W 64-63 60%    
  Feb 27, 2021 134   Pacific W 63-57 75%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 7 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.5 9.8 4.7 0.4 18.4 3rd
4th 0.1 3.8 13.1 5.2 0.2 22.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 11.4 5.8 0.2 19.4 5th
6th 0.7 7.8 6.8 0.6 15.8 6th
7th 0.3 4.1 6.0 0.8 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 1.0 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.9 9.4 16.6 22.9 22.9 15.8 7.0 1.4 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-5 1.4% 84.7% 4.5% 80.1% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 83.9%
10-6 7.0% 55.3% 4.0% 51.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.1 53.5%
9-7 15.8% 29.8% 2.8% 27.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.2 0.3 11.1 27.8%
8-8 22.9% 12.2% 1.8% 10.4% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 20.1 10.6%
7-9 22.9% 3.4% 1.0% 2.3% 12.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 22.1 2.4%
6-10 16.6% 1.4% 1.2% 0.3% 12.3 0.2 0.1 16.4 0.3%
5-11 9.4% 0.6% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3
4-12 2.9% 2.9
3-13 0.9% 0.9
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 13.7% 1.7% 12.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.1 5.4 0.9 0.1 86.3 12.2%