St. Peter's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#167
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#142
Pace67.6#234
Improvement-2.0#274

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#273
First Shot-3.8#274
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#177
Layup/Dunks+1.1#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#294
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#209
Freethrows-1.5#270
Improvement-1.8#281

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#87
First Shot+4.8#47
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#274
Layups/Dunks+3.7#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#149
Freethrows-0.4#206
Improvement-0.2#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.6% 23.0% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 97.8% 99.5% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 98.1% 93.5%
Conference Champion 7.3% 15.8% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.3% 0.9% 1.6%
First Round18.0% 22.3% 15.8%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Away) - 34.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 35 - 7
Quad 413 - 317 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 80   @ St. John's L 75-76 19%     0 - 1 +7.9 +3.9 +3.9
  Nov 27, 2020 183   La Salle W 62-51 55%     1 - 1 +9.1 -3.1 +13.4
  Dec 01, 2020 253   Stony Brook W 82-68 74%     2 - 1 +6.6 +1.9 +3.8
  Dec 04, 2020 56   @ Maryland L 57-90 12%     2 - 2 -21.0 -14.3 -5.2
  Dec 11, 2020 239   Niagara W 70-54 73%     3 - 2 1 - 0 +9.2 -7.3 +16.3
  Dec 12, 2020 239   Niagara W 53-49 73%     4 - 2 2 - 0 -2.8 -15.9 +13.7
  Dec 18, 2020 162   @ Monmouth L 76-78 40%     4 - 3 2 - 1 -0.1 -6.1 +6.2
  Dec 19, 2020 162   @ Monmouth W 78-76 40%     5 - 3 3 - 1 +3.9 +1.6 +2.2
  Dec 23, 2020 288   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 70-64 69%     6 - 3 +0.2 -10.1 +9.9
  Jan 01, 2021 244   @ Canisius L 58-70 61%     6 - 4 3 - 2 -15.3 -16.0 +0.6
  Jan 02, 2021 244   @ Canisius L 60-63 61%     6 - 5 3 - 3 -6.3 -7.3 +0.7
  Jan 22, 2021 153   @ Siena W 68-62 38%     7 - 5 4 - 3 +8.6 -0.8 +9.8
  Jan 23, 2021 153   @ Siena L 65-68 34%    
  Jan 29, 2021 295   Manhattan W 64-54 83%    
  Jan 30, 2021 295   Manhattan W 64-54 84%    
  Feb 06, 2021 280   Rider W 73-64 80%    
  Feb 07, 2021 280   Rider W 73-64 81%    
  Feb 12, 2021 188   @ Iona L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 13, 2021 188   @ Iona L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 19, 2021 286   Marist W 66-57 83%    
  Feb 20, 2021 286   Marist W 66-57 83%    
  Feb 26, 2021 313   Fairfield W 66-55 87%    
  Feb 27, 2021 313   Fairfield W 66-55 88%    
  Mar 05, 2021 283   @ Quinnipiac W 64-59 64%    
  Mar 06, 2021 283   @ Quinnipiac W 64-59 65%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 3.5 2.5 7.3 1st
2nd 0.4 3.1 7.8 8.9 3.0 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 9.0 18.5 15.9 6.0 0.4 52.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.8 4.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.3 1.7 1.2 0.3 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.5 8.5 14.1 23.2 25.1 18.3 6.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 42.5% 2.5    1.2 1.3 0.0
14-6 18.9% 3.5    1.0 1.7 0.8
13-7 5.1% 1.3    0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 2.3 3.8 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 6.0% 39.8% 39.8% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.2 3.6
14-6 18.3% 24.1% 24.1% 14.1 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.0 0.1 13.9
13-7 25.1% 19.1% 19.1% 14.6 0.3 1.8 2.2 0.6 20.3
12-8 23.2% 17.8% 17.8% 15.1 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.2 19.0
11-9 14.1% 11.6% 11.6% 15.5 0.1 0.7 0.9 12.5
10-10 8.5% 11.5% 11.5% 15.7 0.3 0.7 7.5
9-11 3.5% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.1 0.2 3.2
8-12 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
7-13 0.3% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.4 1.8 6.1 6.6 3.6 81.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 12.6 7.5 33.0 48.0 11.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%