Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#155
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#191
Pace75.7#43
Improvement+4.6#15

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#150
First Shot-0.6#192
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#116
Layup/Dunks+6.8#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.6#346
Freethrows+2.9#27
Improvement+4.0#12

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#167
First Shot-1.5#215
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#65
Layups/Dunks+3.3#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#117
Freethrows-5.4#343
Improvement+0.7#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.3% 26.5% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 97.7% 98.2% 93.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.7% 98.3%
Conference Champion 38.2% 41.0% 15.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.9% 3.8% 4.7%
First Round23.9% 25.1% 13.8%
Second Round2.1% 2.2% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 88.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 22 - 3
Quad 412 - 314 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 04, 2020 340   McNeese St. W 86-76 94%     1 - 0 1 - 0 -6.7 -8.6 +0.9
  Dec 09, 2020 2   @ Baylor L 52-83 2%     1 - 1 -6.5 -15.0 +11.8
  Dec 12, 2020 299   @ Louisiana Monroe L 55-66 77%     1 - 2 -18.0 -14.7 -4.2
  Jan 02, 2021 292   New Orleans W 78-67 83%     2 - 2 2 - 0 +1.3 -4.4 +5.1
  Jan 13, 2021 276   Central Arkansas W 95-69 82%     3 - 2 3 - 0 +16.8 +12.2 +3.8
  Jan 16, 2021 324   @ Incarnate Word W 83-65 85%     4 - 2 4 - 0 +7.7 +2.6 +4.8
  Jan 20, 2021 319   Northwestern St. W 86-74 89%     5 - 2 5 - 0 -0.9 +4.3 -5.5
  Jan 23, 2021 309   Lamar W 79-67 89%    
  Jan 27, 2021 125   @ Abilene Christian L 66-70 31%    
  Jan 30, 2021 178   Sam Houston St. W 79-75 68%    
  Feb 06, 2021 292   @ New Orleans W 81-74 70%    
  Feb 10, 2021 320   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78-64 90%    
  Feb 17, 2021 276   @ Central Arkansas W 85-79 67%    
  Feb 20, 2021 324   Incarnate Word W 80-65 93%    
  Feb 24, 2021 319   @ Northwestern St. W 83-73 78%    
  Feb 27, 2021 309   @ Lamar W 77-69 73%    
  Mar 03, 2021 125   Abilene Christian L 68-69 53%    
  Mar 06, 2021 178   @ Sam Houston St. W 77-76 48%    
Projected Record 13 - 5 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1.0 6.8 16.7 11.0 2.7 38.2 1st
2nd 0.7 5.9 11.3 2.5 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.7 5.2 9.1 3.0 0.1 18.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.5 7.1 3.9 0.3 17.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.4 0.9 3.5 7.2 13.6 20.0 21.4 19.3 11.0 2.7 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
15-1 100.0% 11.0    10.1 0.8
14-2 86.4% 16.7    8.4 6.7 1.4 0.1
13-3 31.9% 6.8    1.4 3.1 2.0 0.3
12-4 5.2% 1.0    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 38.2% 38.2 22.9 11.0 3.7 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.7% 40.0% 40.0% 13.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6
15-1 11.0% 50.3% 50.3% 14.1 0.0 1.1 2.7 1.6 0.1 5.4
14-2 19.3% 37.8% 37.8% 14.9 0.2 2.0 3.8 1.3 12.0
13-3 21.4% 26.7% 26.7% 15.4 0.3 3.0 2.4 15.7
12-4 20.0% 18.4% 18.4% 15.6 0.2 1.0 2.5 16.3
11-5 13.6% 9.7% 9.7% 15.9 0.1 1.2 12.3
10-6 7.2% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.6 6.6
9-7 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 3.4
8-8 0.9% 0.9
7-9 0.4% 0.4
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 25.3% 25.3% 0.0% 14.9 0.2 1.9 5.5 9.6 8.1 74.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 13.2 10.7 60.9 27.9 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%