Stony Brook
America East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#253
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#255
Pace70.6#158
Improvement+0.0#169

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#284
First Shot-5.9#309
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#90
Layup/Dunks+0.2#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#291
Freethrows-0.5#207
Improvement+0.7#116

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#198
First Shot-1.6#217
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#143
Layups/Dunks-0.2#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#281
Freethrows+1.7#78
Improvement-0.6#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 5.1% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 20.8% 37.0% 11.6%
.500 or above in Conference 39.1% 44.8% 35.8%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.3% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Four3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
First Round2.6% 3.0% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Away) - 36.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 48 - 49 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 01, 2020 167   @ St. Peter's L 68-82 26%     0 - 1 -12.7 -4.9 -6.9
  Dec 04, 2020 313   Fairfield W 72-69 OT 73%     1 - 1 -9.0 -15.1 +5.7
  Dec 06, 2020 80   @ St. John's L 66-89 10%     1 - 2 -14.1 -10.0 -1.7
  Dec 09, 2020 175   @ Hofstra L 67-72 27%     1 - 3 -4.1 -3.6 -0.6
  Dec 12, 2020 170   @ Bryant L 72-81 26%     1 - 4 -7.9 -5.7 -1.6
  Dec 19, 2020 337   @ Binghamton W 73-59 73%     2 - 4 1 - 0 +2.2 -9.3 +11.4
  Dec 20, 2020 337   @ Binghamton W 80-70 OT 73%     3 - 4 2 - 0 -1.8 -4.5 +2.4
  Dec 27, 2020 243   Umass Lowell W 73-58 56%     4 - 4 3 - 0 +8.0 -1.3 +9.9
  Dec 28, 2020 243   Umass Lowell W 71-64 56%     5 - 4 4 - 0 +0.0 -6.5 +6.4
  Jan 16, 2021 227   New Hampshire L 64-81 52%     5 - 5 4 - 1 -23.0 -8.8 -14.9
  Jan 17, 2021 227   New Hampshire L 64-67 52%     5 - 6 4 - 2 -9.0 -3.4 -6.0
  Jan 23, 2021 242   @ NJIT L 67-69 36%    
  Jan 24, 2021 242   @ NJIT L 67-69 37%    
  Jan 30, 2021 107   @ Vermont L 61-73 10%    
  Jan 31, 2021 107   @ Vermont L 61-73 12%    
  Feb 12, 2021 208   @ Albany L 66-70 32%    
  Feb 13, 2021 208   @ Albany L 66-70 30%    
  Feb 18, 2021 221   Hartford W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 19, 2021 221   Hartford W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 27, 2021 318   @ Maine W 64-60 59%    
  Feb 28, 2021 318   @ Maine W 64-60 58%    
Projected Record 9 - 12 7 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.8 1.2 3.3 1st
2nd 0.5 4.3 2.2 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.6 6.3 0.2 12.2 3rd
4th 1.6 10.0 0.8 12.5 4th
5th 0.5 10.4 5.3 16.2 5th
6th 0.6 8.0 12.7 0.5 21.8 6th
7th 0.4 6.4 10.9 2.1 19.7 7th
8th 2.3 4.3 0.6 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
Total 2.7 11.2 20.0 27.0 22.0 11.6 4.2 1.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 97.1% 1.2    0.7 0.4 0.1
10-6 43.6% 1.8    0.1 1.1 0.7 0.0
9-7 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 1.2% 18.2% 18.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
10-6 4.2% 10.8% 10.8% 15.8 0.1 0.4 3.8
9-7 11.6% 8.9% 8.9% 15.9 0.1 1.0 10.6
8-8 22.0% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 1.4 20.6
7-9 27.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.6 26.4
6-10 20.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.5 19.5
5-11 11.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 11.1
4-12 2.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.1 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%