Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.2#324
Expected Predictive Rating-14.1#327
Pace69.3#200
Improvement-0.5#203

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#313
First Shot-4.1#277
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#271
Layup/Dunks-3.0#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#263
Freethrows+1.0#114
Improvement+0.0#167

Defense
Total Defense-6.2#323
First Shot-2.8#266
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#334
Layups/Dunks+4.7#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#298
Freethrows-7.6#346
Improvement-0.5#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 0.0% 12.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 22.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 8
Quad 42 - 43 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 120   @ Texas A&M L 66-73 6%     0 - 1 -1.6 -5.7 +4.5
  Dec 05, 2020 119   @ Abilene Christian L 48-69 6%     0 - 2 -15.5 -17.0 +1.1
  Jan 08, 2021 142   Grand Canyon L 72-75 14%     0 - 3 0 - 1 -3.3 +0.1 -3.5
  Jan 09, 2021 142   Grand Canyon L 48-59 14%     0 - 4 0 - 2 -11.3 -18.5 +5.3
  Jan 15, 2021 279   @ California Baptist L 74-83 26%     0 - 5 0 - 3 -14.4 -5.9 -8.4
  Jan 16, 2021 279   @ California Baptist L 71-78 23%    
  Jan 17, 2021 174   @ Weber St. L 66-79 9%    
  Jan 22, 2021 256   Seattle L 69-74 38%    
  Jan 23, 2021 256   Seattle L 69-74 38%    
  Feb 19, 2021 337   @ Dixie St. L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 20, 2021 337   @ Dixie St. L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 26, 2021 118   New Mexico St. L 60-74 13%    
  Feb 27, 2021 118   New Mexico St. L 60-74 13%    
  Mar 05, 2021 215   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 66-76 15%    
  Mar 06, 2021 215   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 66-76 15%    
Projected Record 3 - 12 2 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.4 0.1 5.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.7 7.2 3.2 0.3 14.5 6th
7th 2.3 12.8 15.5 5.9 0.5 0.0 37.0 7th
8th 9.5 18.0 11.3 2.3 0.1 41.3 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 9.5 20.3 24.3 21.5 14.0 6.8 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0% 0.0
8-8 0.1% 0.1
7-9 0.8% 0.8
6-10 2.8% 2.8
5-11 6.8% 6.8
4-12 14.0% 14.0
3-13 21.5% 21.5
2-14 24.3% 24.3
1-15 20.3% 20.3
0-16 9.5% 9.5
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.0%