Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.1#303
Expected Predictive Rating-20.6#339
Pace72.4#108
Improvement+0.8#117

Offense
Total Offense-9.1#335
First Shot-7.5#331
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#265
Layup/Dunks+0.3#154
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#216
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#334
Freethrows-0.1#181
Improvement+0.2#158

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#169
First Shot+2.5#90
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#318
Layups/Dunks+4.7#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#60
Freethrows-4.7#342
Improvement+0.7#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.4% 17.7% 35.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 13.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 71 - 8
Quad 44 - 115 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 99   Belmont L 67-79 14%    
  Dec 08, 2020 99   @ Belmont L 64-79 8%     0 - 1 0 - 1 -8.2 -13.8 +7.0
  Dec 12, 2020 300   @ IUPUI L 66-69 42%     0 - 2 -10.0 -17.1 +7.5
  Dec 18, 2020 99   Belmont L 63-88 13%     0 - 3 0 - 2 -21.9 -15.3 -4.7
  Dec 22, 2020 176   Chattanooga L 63-66 27%     0 - 4 -5.8 -11.5 +5.7
  Dec 30, 2020 194   Austin Peay L 59-68 33%     0 - 5 0 - 3 -13.5 -16.0 +2.2
  Jan 02, 2021 308   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 79-83 2OT 44%     0 - 6 0 - 4 -11.5 -10.2 -0.7
  Jan 07, 2021 342   Tennessee Martin W 74-62 77%     1 - 6 1 - 4 -5.0 -11.7 +6.7
  Jan 14, 2021 189   @ Jacksonville St. L 64-65 21%     1 - 7 1 - 5 -1.6 -7.3 +5.7
  Jan 16, 2021 304   @ Tennessee Tech L 71-74 43%     1 - 8 1 - 6 -10.3 -9.1 -1.0
  Jan 19, 2021 308   Southeast Missouri St. L 59-63 58%     1 - 9 1 - 7 -15.2 -18.4 +3.2
  Jan 21, 2021 298   SIU Edwardsville L 65-67 56%     1 - 10 1 - 8 -12.5 -16.1 +3.8
  Jan 23, 2021 230   Eastern Illinois L 68-71 45%    
  Jan 28, 2021 165   @ Murray St. L 62-72 14%    
  Jan 30, 2021 194   @ Austin Peay L 65-73 19%    
  Feb 04, 2021 298   @ SIU Edwardsville L 66-68 37%    
  Feb 06, 2021 230   @ Eastern Illinois L 66-72 24%    
  Feb 11, 2021 190   Morehead St. L 60-65 36%    
  Feb 13, 2021 152   Eastern Kentucky L 68-76 27%    
  Feb 18, 2021 304   Tennessee Tech W 69-67 62%    
  Feb 20, 2021 189   Jacksonville St. L 64-69 38%    
  Feb 25, 2021 190   @ Morehead St. L 58-66 19%    
  Feb 27, 2021 152   @ Eastern Kentucky L 66-78 12%    
Projected Record 4 - 19 4 - 17




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 1.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.5 2.8 3.6 0.9 7.8 8th
9th 0.7 5.1 7.2 2.0 0.1 15.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 7.0 10.7 2.6 0.4 21.8 10th
11th 0.2 3.5 10.8 11.8 5.0 0.1 31.5 11th
12th 2.8 7.0 6.1 1.6 0.2 17.7 12th
Total 3.1 10.5 17.9 21.1 21.5 12.9 7.6 3.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.1% 0.1
10-10 0.4% 0.4
9-11 1.0% 1.0
8-12 3.9% 3.9
7-13 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.6
6-14 12.9% 12.9
5-15 21.5% 21.5
4-16 21.1% 21.1
3-17 17.9% 17.9
2-18 10.5% 10.5
1-19 3.1% 3.1
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.1%