Texas Arlington
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#190
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#197
Pace73.8#77
Improvement-3.5#324

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#189
First Shot-0.4#188
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#192
Layup/Dunks-5.0#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#110
Freethrows-1.1#240
Improvement+0.2#149

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#221
First Shot-0.7#190
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#241
Layups/Dunks+1.6#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#278
Freethrows+1.5#88
Improvement-3.7#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 11.3% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 37.7% 51.2% 23.6%
.500 or above in Conference 74.4% 86.0% 62.2%
Conference Champion 9.9% 15.4% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four1.3% 2.1% 0.4%
First Round6.4% 10.5% 2.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 410 - 411 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 33   Oklahoma St. L 68-75 12%     0 - 1 +3.3 -5.3 +9.2
  Nov 27, 2020 110   @ Louisiana Tech L 71-76 21%     0 - 2 +1.1 -2.7 +4.3
  Nov 28, 2020 318   Northwestern St. W 80-71 79%     1 - 2 -2.0 -9.7 +6.5
  Dec 02, 2020 45   @ Arkansas L 60-72 9%     1 - 3 +0.8 -2.2 +2.1
  Dec 04, 2020 87   @ Tulsa L 64-79 16%     1 - 4 -6.7 -2.2 -4.5
  Jan 01, 2021 156   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 93-102 33%     1 - 5 0 - 1 -6.8 +6.6 -12.2
  Jan 02, 2021 156   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 62-75 33%     1 - 6 0 - 2 -10.8 -12.1 +1.3
  Jan 08, 2021 296   @ Louisiana Monroe W 77-64 66%     2 - 6 1 - 2 +6.5 +1.8 +4.6
  Jan 09, 2021 296   @ Louisiana Monroe W 75-74 66%     3 - 6 2 - 2 -5.5 +3.0 -8.4
  Jan 15, 2021 169   Louisiana W 91-86 51%     4 - 6 3 - 2 +2.4 +9.8 -7.9
  Jan 16, 2021 169   Louisiana L 51-68 51%     4 - 7 3 - 3 -19.6 -21.2 +1.9
  Jan 22, 2021 156   Arkansas Little Rock L 75-76 51%    
  Jan 23, 2021 156   Arkansas Little Rock L 75-76 51%    
  Jan 29, 2021 280   @ Arkansas St. W 77-74 58%    
  Jan 30, 2021 280   @ Arkansas St. W 77-74 58%    
  Feb 05, 2021 296   Louisiana Monroe W 75-67 80%    
  Feb 06, 2021 296   Louisiana Monroe W 75-67 79%    
  Feb 11, 2021 155   Texas St. L 68-69 51%    
  Feb 13, 2021 155   @ Texas St. L 66-71 30%    
  Feb 19, 2021 169   @ Louisiana L 72-75 34%    
  Feb 20, 2021 169   @ Louisiana L 72-75 35%    
  Feb 26, 2021 280   Arkansas St. W 79-72 76%    
  Feb 27, 2021 280   Arkansas St. W 79-72 76%    
Projected Record 11 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.1 1.7 0.3 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.4 1.6 0.1 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 6.5 3.0 0.2 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.7 5.4 0.6 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.6 7.2 1.6 0.0 15.1 5th
6th 0.2 3.5 7.2 2.4 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 6.0 2.9 0.3 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.3 2.3 0.1 6.6 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 1.5 0.2 3.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.8 7.2 12.7 17.4 19.2 17.4 12.1 6.0 1.9 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-4 93.6% 1.7    1.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 68.5% 4.1    1.8 1.7 0.5 0.1
12-6 25.4% 3.1    0.5 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1
11-7 3.2% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 4.0 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.3% 100.0% 100.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1
14-4 1.9% 91.5% 91.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.2
13-5 6.0% 52.1% 52.1% 15.5 0.1 1.3 1.7 2.9
12-6 12.1% 12.3% 12.3% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 10.6
11-7 17.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 17.3
10-8 19.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.2
9-9 17.4% 17.4
8-10 12.7% 12.7
7-11 7.2% 7.2
6-12 3.8% 3.8
5-13 1.6% 1.6
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 0.6 2.7 3.5 93.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.2 11.4 60.1 28.6
Lose Out 0.0%