IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.1	#203
Expected Predictive Rating	-4.5	#232

Pace	78.1	#33
Improvement	+4.8	#12

Offense
Total Offense	+1.8	#124

First Shot	-0.5	#190
After Offensive Rebound	+2.4	#50

Layup/Dunks	-3.0	#282
2 Pt Jumpshots	+1.8	#78
3 Pt Jumpshots	+1.4	#119
Freethrows	-0.8	#232

Improvement	+2.3	#44

Defense
Total Defense	-4.9	#300

First Shot	-7.2	#334
After Offensive Rebounds	+2.2	#39

Layups/Dunks	-1.2	#217
2 Pt Jumpshots	+3.0	#13
3 Pt Jumpshots	-5.5	#332
Freethrows	-3.5	#325

Improvement	+2.6	#29

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	15.4	15.0

.500 or above	2.1%	3.0%	0.4%
.500 or above in Conference	1.5%	2.3%	0.1%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	19.8%	11.9%	34.2%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 5
Quad 3	2 - 7	3 - 12
Quad 4	3 - 1	6 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 28, 2020	210	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	64-81	45%	0 - 1			-18.8	-7.1	-11.8
Dec 03, 2020	21	@ Oklahoma	L	66-105	5%	0 - 2			-23.4	-8.4	-10.0
Dec 16, 2020	140	@ Oregon St.	L	61-73	27%	0 - 3			-8.6	-11.6	+2.9
Dec 22, 2020	309	Lamar	W	88-66	78%	1 - 3			+10.7	+4.5	+4.3
Jan 01, 2021	187	@ Rice	L	86-95	39%	1 - 4	0 - 1		-9.2	+4.5	-12.9
Jan 02, 2021	187	@ Rice	L	69-84	39%	1 - 5	0 - 2		-15.2	-8.3	-6.2
Jan 08, 2021	91	North Texas	L	70-77	24%	1 - 6	0 - 3		-2.8	+4.8	-8.0
Jan 09, 2021	91	North Texas	W	77-69	24%	2 - 6	1 - 3		+12.2	+10.5	+1.9
Jan 15, 2021	115	@ Louisiana Tech	L	66-77	21%	2 - 7	1 - 4		-5.4	-10.0	+5.9
Jan 16, 2021	115	@ Louisiana Tech	L	66-82	21%	2 - 8	1 - 5		-10.4	-0.1	-10.9
Jan 22, 2021	213	Southern Miss	W	70-64	60%	3 - 8	2 - 5		+0.4	-1.8	+2.3
Jan 23, 2021	213	Southern Miss	W	74-71	65%
Jan 28, 2021	148	UTEP	L	77-79	46%
Jan 30, 2021	148	@ UTEP	L	75-81	27%
Feb 12, 2021	168	Florida Atlantic	L	77-78	53%
Feb 19, 2021	169	@ Charlotte	L	68-72	30%
Feb 20, 2021	169	@ Charlotte	L	68-72	30%
Feb 25, 2021	96	UAB	L	73-80	30%
Feb 27, 2021	96	UAB	L	73-80	31%
Projected Record						6 - 13	5 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st																						1st
2nd																						2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0										0.0	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	0.1										0.4	4th
5th									0.3	0.6	0.1										0.9	5th
6th								0.0	1.1	0.5											1.7	6th
7th								1.0	1.8	0.0											2.8	7th
8th							0.5	3.1	1.0												4.5	8th
9th						0.1	2.8	4.4	0.3												7.5	9th
10th						2.4	8.9	2.3													13.6	10th
11th					1.1	9.2	7.8	0.4													18.6	11th
12th			0.1	1.4	8.3	10.6	2.0	0.0													22.4	12th
13th			0.9	6.6	9.0	3.1	0.0														19.6	13th
14th			1.6	3.9	2.6	0.1															8.2	14th

Total			2.6	11.8	21.0	25.4	22.0	11.2	4.5	1.4	0.2											Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8	0.2%																							0.2
9-9	1.4%		2.9%	2.9%		14.9															0.0	0.0		1.3
8-10	4.5%		2.6%	2.6%		15.0																0.1		4.3
7-11	11.2%		1.0%	1.0%		15.4																0.1	0.0	11.1
6-12	22.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	22.0
5-13	25.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	25.4
4-14	21.0%																							21.0
3-15	11.8%																							11.8
2-16	2.6%																							2.6
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	15.3															0.0	0.2	0.1	99.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	2.6%