Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#203
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#232
Pace78.1#33
Improvement+4.8#12

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#124
First Shot-0.5#190
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#50
Layup/Dunks-3.0#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#119
Freethrows-0.8#232
Improvement+2.3#44

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#300
First Shot-7.2#334
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#39
Layups/Dunks-1.2#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#332
Freethrows-3.5#325
Improvement+2.6#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.4 15.0
.500 or above 2.1% 3.0% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 1.5% 2.3% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.8% 11.9% 34.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 32 - 73 - 12
Quad 43 - 16 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 210   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 64-81 45%     0 - 1 -18.8 -7.1 -11.8
  Dec 03, 2020 21   @ Oklahoma L 66-105 5%     0 - 2 -23.4 -8.4 -10.0
  Dec 16, 2020 140   @ Oregon St. L 61-73 27%     0 - 3 -8.6 -11.6 +2.9
  Dec 22, 2020 309   Lamar W 88-66 78%     1 - 3 +10.7 +4.5 +4.3
  Jan 01, 2021 187   @ Rice L 86-95 39%     1 - 4 0 - 1 -9.2 +4.5 -12.9
  Jan 02, 2021 187   @ Rice L 69-84 39%     1 - 5 0 - 2 -15.2 -8.3 -6.2
  Jan 08, 2021 91   North Texas L 70-77 24%     1 - 6 0 - 3 -2.8 +4.8 -8.0
  Jan 09, 2021 91   North Texas W 77-69 24%     2 - 6 1 - 3 +12.2 +10.5 +1.9
  Jan 15, 2021 115   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-77 21%     2 - 7 1 - 4 -5.4 -10.0 +5.9
  Jan 16, 2021 115   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-82 21%     2 - 8 1 - 5 -10.4 -0.1 -10.9
  Jan 22, 2021 213   Southern Miss W 70-64 60%     3 - 8 2 - 5 +0.4 -1.8 +2.3
  Jan 23, 2021 213   Southern Miss W 74-71 65%    
  Jan 28, 2021 148   UTEP L 77-79 46%    
  Jan 30, 2021 148   @ UTEP L 75-81 27%    
  Feb 12, 2021 168   Florida Atlantic L 77-78 53%    
  Feb 19, 2021 169   @ Charlotte L 68-72 30%    
  Feb 20, 2021 169   @ Charlotte L 68-72 30%    
  Feb 25, 2021 96   UAB L 73-80 30%    
  Feb 27, 2021 96   UAB L 73-80 31%    
Projected Record 6 - 13 5 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 0.5 1.7 6th
7th 1.0 1.8 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.5 3.1 1.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 4.4 0.3 7.5 9th
10th 2.4 8.9 2.3 13.6 10th
11th 1.1 9.2 7.8 0.4 18.6 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 8.3 10.6 2.0 0.0 22.4 12th
13th 0.9 6.6 9.0 3.1 0.0 19.6 13th
14th 1.6 3.9 2.6 0.1 8.2 14th
Total 2.6 11.8 21.0 25.4 22.0 11.2 4.5 1.4 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 1.4% 2.9% 2.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 1.3
8-10 4.5% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.1 4.3
7-11 11.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.1 0.0 11.1
6-12 22.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 22.0
5-13 25.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.4
4-14 21.0% 21.0
3-15 11.8% 11.8
2-16 2.6% 2.6
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%