Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#247
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#297
Pace74.1#68
Improvement-3.4#322

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#205
First Shot-1.7#216
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#160
Layup/Dunks+2.4#87
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.3#337
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement-0.7#225

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#289
First Shot-2.8#265
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#262
Layups/Dunks+4.0#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#239
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#309
Freethrows-2.1#290
Improvement-2.7#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.0% 26.7% 17.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 72.8% 78.5% 49.1%
.500 or above in Conference 82.6% 87.7% 61.7%
Conference Champion 20.1% 23.4% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four19.8% 20.5% 17.1%
First Round15.0% 16.7% 7.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Away) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 11 - 6
Quad 411 - 513 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 126   @ Washington St. L 52-56 17%     0 - 1 +0.8 -17.2 +18.1
  Nov 28, 2020 33   @ Oklahoma St. L 65-85 5%     0 - 2 -6.0 -2.2 -3.3
  Nov 30, 2020 181   @ Wyoming W 76-74 30%     1 - 2 +1.9 -0.2 +2.2
  Dec 03, 2020 84   @ St. Mary's L 70-82 10%     1 - 3 -3.6 +11.6 -16.6
  Dec 15, 2020 64   @ Auburn L 63-80 8%     1 - 4 -6.5 -4.2 -2.5
  Dec 21, 2020 37   @ BYU L 71-87 5%     1 - 5 -2.5 -0.4 -0.9
  Jan 11, 2021 258   @ Prairie View L 67-73 45%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -10.2 -8.3 -1.6
  Jan 16, 2021 304   Grambling St. L 72-78 70%     1 - 7 0 - 2 -16.8 -6.2 -10.3
  Jan 23, 2021 343   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-70 81%    
  Jan 25, 2021 348   @ Mississippi Valley W 91-70 96%    
  Jan 30, 2021 346   Alabama St. W 78-62 94%    
  Feb 01, 2021 333   Alabama A&M W 79-69 84%    
  Feb 06, 2021 258   Prairie View W 74-72 63%    
  Feb 13, 2021 304   @ Grambling St. W 72-70 52%    
  Feb 15, 2021 311   @ Jackson St. W 72-70 53%    
  Feb 20, 2021 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-68 91%    
  Feb 22, 2021 348   Mississippi Valley W 92-68 99%    
  Feb 27, 2021 346   @ Alabama St. W 76-64 84%    
  Mar 01, 2021 333   @ Alabama A&M W 77-71 68%    
  Mar 04, 2021 334   Alcorn St. W 83-73 84%    
  Mar 06, 2021 254   Southern W 75-73 61%    
Projected Record 11 - 10 10 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.2 10.0 5.3 20.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 8.1 12.4 5.9 0.7 28.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 10.3 12.4 5.6 0.5 31.2 3rd
4th 0.8 5.5 3.9 0.8 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.5 2.2 1.8 0.2 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.2 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.8 9.7 16.3 21.9 22.1 16.4 6.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 88.4% 5.3    3.5 1.6 0.1
12-6 61.2% 10.0    4.5 4.6 0.9 0.0
11-7 18.8% 4.2    1.3 1.9 0.8 0.1
10-8 2.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
9-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
Total 20.1% 20.1 9.5 8.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 6.0% 41.6% 41.6% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.4 3.5
12-6 16.4% 37.1% 37.1% 15.9 0.6 5.5 10.3
11-7 22.1% 31.3% 31.3% 16.0 0.1 6.9 15.2
10-8 21.9% 23.0% 23.0% 16.0 5.0 16.9
9-9 16.3% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 2.6 13.6
8-10 9.7% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 1.2 8.5
7-11 4.8% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.4 4.5
6-12 1.9% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.2 1.7
5-13 0.7% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.1 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.5 2.3 22.2 75.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 14.9 0.0 21.8 64.0 14.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%