Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#151
Expected Predictive Rating+7.1#84
Pace62.9#320
Improvement+3.3#30

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#193
First Shot+1.7#138
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#299
Layup/Dunks+0.7#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#254
Freethrows-2.2#301
Improvement+1.4#80

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#132
First Shot+2.2#103
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#219
Layups/Dunks+2.9#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#184
Freethrows-0.8#222
Improvement+1.9#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.5% 34.5% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 98.9% 99.7% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 95.5% 80.4%
Conference Champion 29.5% 35.6% 14.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round28.4% 34.4% 13.2%
Second Round2.3% 2.9% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 71.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 23 - 4
Quad 413 - 316 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 312   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75-63 80%     1 - 0 +4.0 +1.2 +2.9
  Nov 30, 2020 71   @ Mississippi St. L 51-68 19%     1 - 1 -7.1 -12.5 +3.4
  Dec 05, 2020 323   Incarnate Word W 72-64 90%     2 - 1 -5.6 -3.8 -1.2
  Dec 09, 2020 10   @ Texas L 53-74 6%     2 - 2 -2.4 -9.1 +6.1
  Dec 15, 2020 312   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 51-46 87%     3 - 2 -6.5 -13.5 +8.1
  Dec 19, 2020 326   @ Denver W 70-68 85%     4 - 2 -8.6 -10.0 +1.4
  Dec 21, 2020 297   Northern Arizona W 70-65 80%     5 - 2 -3.2 -1.6 -1.0
  Jan 01, 2021 167   @ Louisiana L 77-83 OT 49%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -5.1 -2.1 -2.3
  Jan 02, 2021 167   @ Louisiana W 71-59 49%     6 - 3 1 - 1 +12.9 +6.4 +7.3
  Jan 15, 2021 153   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 63-59 44%     7 - 3 2 - 1 +6.2 -7.2 +13.6
  Jan 16, 2021 153   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 67-56 44%     8 - 3 3 - 1 +13.2 +8.8 +7.0
  Jan 22, 2021 298   @ Louisiana Monroe W 67-60 72%    
  Jan 23, 2021 298   @ Louisiana Monroe W 67-60 71%    
  Jan 29, 2021 167   Louisiana W 68-65 66%    
  Jan 30, 2021 167   Louisiana W 68-65 67%    
  Feb 05, 2021 153   Arkansas Little Rock W 69-67 62%    
  Feb 06, 2021 153   Arkansas Little Rock W 69-67 62%    
  Feb 11, 2021 188   @ Texas Arlington W 69-68 49%    
  Feb 13, 2021 188   Texas Arlington W 71-66 71%    
  Feb 19, 2021 281   @ Arkansas St. W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 20, 2021 281   @ Arkansas St. W 71-65 67%    
  Feb 26, 2021 298   Louisiana Monroe W 69-58 86%    
  Feb 27, 2021 298   Louisiana Monroe W 69-58 86%    
Projected Record 16 - 7 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.7 10.8 9.0 3.0 29.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.3 8.6 4.4 0.5 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 7.8 4.3 0.5 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.6 5.3 0.9 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 4.8 1.0 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.7 1.5 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.3 0.1 4.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.2 9.3 14.7 19.5 19.5 15.8 9.5 3.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 3.0    2.8 0.1
14-4 95.1% 9.0    6.7 2.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 68.6% 10.8    4.9 4.5 1.3 0.1
12-6 29.1% 5.7    1.0 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.1
11-7 5.2% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.5% 29.5 15.4 9.3 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.0
14-4 9.5% 95.0% 95.0% 14.0 0.1 1.9 5.1 1.8 0.1 0.5
13-5 15.8% 68.3% 68.3% 14.5 0.0 0.7 4.6 4.9 0.6 5.0
12-6 19.5% 25.8% 25.8% 15.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.0 14.5
11-7 19.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 18.8
10-8 14.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 14.7
9-9 9.3% 9.3
8-10 5.2% 5.2
7-11 2.5% 2.5
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.5% 28.5% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.3 11.6 10.0 2.0 71.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0% 100.0% 13.1 0.7 1.2 15.6 55.1 26.1 1.3