Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#14
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#39
Pace67.1#246
Improvement-0.3#191

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#24
First Shot+5.3#48
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#55
Layup/Dunks-0.7#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#249
Freethrows+3.9#11
Improvement+3.9#16

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#14
First Shot+5.9#31
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#49
Layups/Dunks+9.4#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#175
Freethrows-0.7#218
Improvement-4.2#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.0% 3.1% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 8.5% 12.5% 4.1%
Top 4 Seed 38.2% 49.4% 25.9%
Top 6 Seed 66.7% 78.6% 53.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.5% 96.9% 85.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.8% 96.6% 84.5%
Average Seed 5.4 4.8 6.1
.500 or above 99.2% 99.9% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 73.7% 76.7% 70.4%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.4% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.4% 1.9% 5.1%
First Round90.2% 96.2% 83.7%
Second Round67.9% 75.5% 59.5%
Sweet Sixteen37.4% 43.6% 30.6%
Elite Eight17.0% 20.2% 13.5%
Final Four7.9% 9.6% 6.0%
Championship Game3.2% 3.9% 2.4%
National Champion1.1% 1.4% 0.8%

Next Game: LSU (Away) - 52.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 26 - 8
Quad 21 - 17 - 10
Quad 34 - 011 - 10
Quad 47 - 018 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 316   Northwestern St. W 101-58 99%     1 - 0 +30.9 +9.3 +16.3
  Nov 27, 2020 181   Sam Houston St. W 84-52 95%     2 - 0 +28.9 +7.8 +20.4
  Nov 29, 2020 7   Houston L 53-64 42%     2 - 1 +6.7 -6.4 +12.4
  Dec 04, 2020 273   Troy W 80-46 98%     3 - 1 +25.3 +9.1 +18.0
  Dec 06, 2020 315   Grambling St. W 81-40 99%     4 - 1 +29.2 +3.7 +24.8
  Dec 09, 2020 115   Abilene Christian W 51-44 89%     5 - 1 +9.2 -10.9 +20.7
  Dec 12, 2020 329   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77-57 99%     6 - 1 +7.2 +8.6 +0.7
  Dec 17, 2020 16   Kansas L 57-58 57%     6 - 2 0 - 1 +12.6 -4.2 +16.7
  Dec 22, 2020 18   @ Oklahoma W 69-67 46%     7 - 2 1 - 1 +18.4 +5.3 +13.2
  Dec 29, 2020 319   Incarnate Word W 79-51 99%     8 - 2 +15.6 +3.6 +13.5
  Jan 02, 2021 32   Oklahoma St. L 77-82 OT 68%     8 - 3 1 - 2 +5.8 +4.4 +1.8
  Jan 05, 2021 152   Kansas St. W 82-71 93%     9 - 3 2 - 2 +9.8 +13.5 -3.1
  Jan 09, 2021 125   @ Iowa St. W 91-64 84%     10 - 3 3 - 2 +31.8 +21.6 +10.6
  Jan 13, 2021 10   @ Texas W 79-77 40%     11 - 3 4 - 2 +20.1 +14.9 +5.1
  Jan 16, 2021 2   Baylor L 60-68 28%     11 - 4 4 - 3 +13.6 -3.2 +16.8
  Jan 25, 2021 17   @ West Virginia L 87-88 44%     11 - 5 4 - 4 +16.0 +20.8 -4.8
  Jan 30, 2021 35   @ LSU W 77-75 52%    
  Feb 01, 2021 18   Oklahoma W 72-70 64%    
  Feb 06, 2021 152   @ Kansas St. W 72-59 87%    
  Feb 09, 2021 17   West Virginia W 72-70 62%    
  Feb 13, 2021 2   @ Baylor L 66-75 16%    
  Feb 15, 2021 100   @ TCU W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 17, 2021 100   TCU W 73-61 90%    
  Feb 20, 2021 16   @ Kansas L 69-70 40%    
  Feb 23, 2021 32   @ Oklahoma St. W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 27, 2021 10   Texas W 71-70 58%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 9 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 3.2 10.1 5.2 0.4 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 12.1 5.9 0.2 19.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 9.1 9.0 0.5 19.1 4th
5th 0.2 4.8 11.2 1.2 0.0 17.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 8.3 2.6 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.8 2.9 0.1 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.1 7.3 16.5 24.7 25.5 16.6 6.0 0.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 52.1% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.0
12-6 10.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.9% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 6.0% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 2.4 1.0 2.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 16.6% 100.0% 11.9% 88.0% 3.4 0.5 2.7 5.8 5.0 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 25.5% 99.9% 7.8% 92.0% 4.6 0.1 0.8 4.1 7.6 7.2 3.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 24.7% 98.5% 6.1% 92.4% 6.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 5.9 5.8 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 98.4%
8-10 16.5% 85.8% 5.1% 80.7% 8.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.3 85.0%
7-11 7.3% 50.4% 3.4% 46.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.6 48.6%
6-12 2.1% 16.9% 2.6% 14.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 14.7%
5-13 0.4% 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.4 0.5%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 91.5% 7.8% 83.7% 5.4 2.0 6.5 13.0 16.7 16.4 12.2 7.6 5.3 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.5 90.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 75.3 24.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 47.6 48.2 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 46.6 39.1 13.8 0.6