The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#289
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#212
Pace84.2#6
Improvement-1.3#245

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#135
First Shot+2.9#92
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#262
Layup/Dunks-5.6#331
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#9
Freethrows+1.6#73
Improvement-0.5#215

Defense
Total Defense-9.2#341
First Shot-6.8#334
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#312
Layups/Dunks-9.9#348
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#28
Freethrows+0.8#136
Improvement-0.8#237
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 6.8% 19.2% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 58.2% 35.9% 64.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 22.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 11
Quad 45 - 27 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 03, 2020 315   N.C. A&T W 78-70 67%     1 - 0 -4.2 -8.6 +3.6
  Dec 19, 2020 283   @ Longwood W 91-89 42%     2 - 0 -3.6 +6.6 -10.4
  Dec 22, 2020 340   Presbyterian W 94-82 79%     3 - 0 -4.1 +8.8 -13.6
  Jan 09, 2021 179   Chattanooga W 92-87 32%     4 - 0 1 - 0 +1.9 +7.7 -6.2
  Jan 13, 2021 94   Furman L 88-94 14%     4 - 1 1 - 1 -2.2 -0.9 -0.2
  Jan 16, 2021 206   @ VMI L 103-110 27%     4 - 2 1 - 2 -8.3 +8.6 -15.8
  Jan 18, 2021 112   @ UNC Greensboro L 73-87 11%     4 - 3 1 - 3 -8.1 +2.7 -10.4
  Jan 20, 2021 149   Mercer L 63-83 26%     4 - 4 1 - 4 -21.1 -15.3 -5.1
  Jan 27, 2021 119   Wofford L 77-87 22%    
  Jan 30, 2021 126   @ East Tennessee St. L 72-84 11%    
  Feb 06, 2021 198   Western Carolina L 87-90 44%    
  Feb 10, 2021 126   East Tennessee St. L 74-83 25%    
  Feb 13, 2021 179   @ Chattanooga L 79-87 18%    
  Feb 17, 2021 119   @ Wofford L 75-88 10%    
  Feb 20, 2021 206   VMI L 88-91 45%    
  Feb 22, 2021 149   @ Mercer L 83-93 15%    
  Feb 24, 2021 94   @ Furman L 79-94 6%    
  Feb 27, 2021 256   Samford L 89-90 54%    
Projected Record 7 - 11 4 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.3 3.3 3.2 0.8 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 8.2 8.3 1.7 0.1 20.0 8th
9th 0.1 3.1 12.3 10.9 2.3 0.1 28.7 9th
10th 7.3 16.6 12.9 2.7 0.1 39.4 10th
Total 7.3 19.8 26.9 22.0 14.1 6.5 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.1% 6.9% 6.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 6.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 6.4
5-13 14.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 14.1
4-14 22.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.0
3-15 26.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 26.9
2-16 19.8% 19.8
1-17 7.3% 7.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.8%