UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#248
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#281
Pace79.0#24
Improvement-3.6#327

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#200
First Shot+1.8#129
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#315
Layup/Dunks+3.6#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#324
Freethrows+3.8#11
Improvement-2.2#301

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#285
First Shot-3.5#283
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#223
Layups/Dunks-4.1#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#224
Freethrows-1.7#277
Improvement-1.4#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.7% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.8
.500 or above 34.6% 53.3% 23.6%
.500 or above in Conference 17.6% 31.6% 9.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.9% 4.1% 19.6%
First Four1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
First Round1.7% 3.0% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 31 - 4
Quad 46 - 57 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 191   Nicholls St. L 93-101 39%     0 - 1 -10.4 +5.0 -14.2
  Nov 27, 2020 163   @ Santa Clara L 63-66 26%     0 - 2 -1.6 -11.4 +10.1
  Nov 28, 2020 259   Idaho St. W 70-61 52%     1 - 2 +3.1 -5.0 +8.2
  Jan 22, 2021 240   @ UC San Diego L 69-89 42%     1 - 3 0 - 1 -23.2 -6.7 -14.6
  Jan 23, 2021 240   @ UC San Diego L 70-72 37%    
  Jan 29, 2021 90   UC Santa Barbara L 71-81 20%    
  Jan 30, 2021 90   UC Santa Barbara L 71-81 22%    
  Feb 05, 2021 294   @ Cal St. Northridge W 84-83 49%    
  Feb 06, 2021 294   @ Cal St. Northridge W 84-83 50%    
  Feb 12, 2021 271   Long Beach St. W 86-83 65%    
  Feb 13, 2021 271   Long Beach St. W 86-83 64%    
  Feb 26, 2021 332   @ Cal Poly W 79-73 67%    
  Feb 27, 2021 332   @ Cal Poly W 79-73 67%    
  Mar 05, 2021 218   Hawaii W 81-80 55%    
  Mar 06, 2021 218   Hawaii W 81-80 54%    
Projected Record 7 - 8 6 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.5 1.8 2.5 1.5 0.2 6.4 3rd
4th 1.3 5.5 6.5 2.1 0.3 15.6 4th
5th 0.8 7.3 7.5 1.8 0.1 17.5 5th
6th 0.2 5.6 7.7 1.6 0.0 15.2 6th
7th 0.0 3.2 8.8 1.9 0.1 13.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 7.2 2.4 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 6.2 3.3 0.3 11.4 9th
10th 0.4 2.3 3.9 1.5 0.0 8.1 10th
Total 0.4 2.4 5.6 9.0 14.0 17.8 18.1 15.2 10.2 4.9 2.1 0.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.4% 32.2% 32.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3
10-6 2.1% 10.3% 10.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
9-7 4.9% 6.8% 6.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.5
8-8 10.2% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.2 0.2 9.8
7-9 15.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.1 0.4 14.7
6-10 18.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.4 17.7
5-11 17.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 17.7
4-12 14.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.9
3-13 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
2-14 5.6% 5.6
1-15 2.4% 2.4
0-16 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.8 25.0 25.0 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.4%