UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#114
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#132
Pace68.6#217
Improvement+4.1#16

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#138
First Shot-3.6#268
After Offensive Rebound+5.0#8
Layup/Dunks+2.3#91
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#335
Freethrows-1.4#260
Improvement+1.0#97

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#108
First Shot+3.5#69
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#250
Layups/Dunks+5.2#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#167
Freethrows+0.5#161
Improvement+3.1#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.8% 32.1% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 94.7% 95.0% 84.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.4% 94.5%
Conference Champion 53.3% 53.8% 35.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
First Round31.5% 31.9% 19.5%
Second Round4.3% 4.4% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 97.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 36 - 7
Quad 410 - 116 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 148   Pepperdine L 72-86 60%     0 - 1 -12.9 -1.5 -11.4
  Nov 27, 2020 44   @ San Diego St. L 58-77 19%     0 - 2 -6.1 -6.8 +0.6
  Dec 08, 2020 24   @ USC L 56-91 14%     0 - 3 -19.8 -12.4 -5.1
  Dec 17, 2020 132   @ Loyola Marymount L 48-51 47%     0 - 4 +1.4 -16.8 +18.0
  Dec 19, 2020 204   San Diego W 85-53 79%     1 - 4 +27.2 +12.9 +14.6
  Dec 27, 2020 125   UC Santa Barbara W 75-56 60%     2 - 4 1 - 0 +20.3 +1.0 +19.1
  Dec 28, 2020 125   UC Santa Barbara W 73-69 60%     3 - 4 2 - 0 +5.3 +5.7 -0.1
  Jan 09, 2021 295   @ UC San Diego W 79-65 83%     4 - 4 3 - 0 +7.6 +7.0 +0.3
  Jan 22, 2021 332   Cal Poly W 78-59 97%    
  Jan 23, 2021 332   Cal Poly W 78-59 97%    
  Jan 30, 2021 187   @ Hawaii W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 31, 2021 187   @ Hawaii W 75-71 61%    
  Feb 05, 2021 150   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-62 71%    
  Feb 06, 2021 150   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-62 71%    
  Feb 12, 2021 128   @ UC Riverside L 64-65 43%    
  Feb 13, 2021 128   @ UC Riverside L 64-65 43%    
  Feb 19, 2021 272   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 74-65 75%    
  Feb 20, 2021 272   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 26, 2021 295   UC San Diego W 71-57 91%    
  Feb 27, 2021 295   UC San Diego W 71-57 90%    
  Mar 05, 2021 271   @ Long Beach St. W 81-72 74%    
  Mar 06, 2021 271   @ Long Beach St. W 81-72 74%    
Projected Record 14 - 8 12 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1.0 5.2 15.0 15.6 11.8 4.6 53.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.7 12.3 8.4 3.6 0.5 31.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.1 1.8 0.2 9.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 0.5 2.8 6.2 11.2 19.3 23.6 19.2 12.3 4.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 4.6    4.4 0.3
14-2 95.6% 11.8    10.2 1.6
13-3 81.3% 15.6    11.8 3.8 0.0
12-4 63.7% 15.0    7.0 7.1 0.9
11-5 26.9% 5.2    1.4 2.4 1.1 0.4
10-6 9.0% 1.0    0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 53.3% 53.3 34.8 15.3 2.5 0.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 4.6% 54.2% 54.2% 11.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 2.1
14-2 12.3% 46.2% 45.9% 0.3% 13.2 0.2 0.9 2.8 1.6 0.3 6.6 0.6%
13-3 19.2% 42.6% 42.6% 13.6 0.0 0.3 3.4 3.5 0.9 0.0 11.0
12-4 23.6% 31.6% 31.6% 14.3 0.0 1.3 3.1 2.8 0.3 16.1
11-5 19.3% 26.1% 26.1% 14.7 0.3 1.6 2.3 0.7 14.3
10-6 11.2% 14.2% 14.2% 15.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 9.6
9-7 6.2% 13.7% 13.7% 15.7 0.2 0.6 5.4
8-8 2.8% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 0.4 2.4
7-9 0.5% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-10 0.2% 0.2
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 31.8% 31.7% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.8 8.3 10.0 7.3 2.8 68.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 10.6 6.0 2.0 4.1 12.1 16.0 21.8 26.0 11.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%