UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#138
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#174
Pace63.2#317
Improvement-0.7#214

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#238
First Shot-2.5#243
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#177
Layup/Dunks-4.0#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#24
Freethrows-6.6#347
Improvement-0.7#225

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#63
First Shot-1.3#208
After Offensive Rebounds+5.7#2
Layups/Dunks-0.9#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#173
Freethrows-0.5#209
Improvement-0.1#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 17.4% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.8
.500 or above 88.4% 93.9% 79.0%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 83.2% 76.1%
Conference Champion 5.5% 6.1% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 1.3%
First Round15.3% 17.2% 12.0%
Second Round1.3% 1.6% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 45 - 7
Quad 49 - 214 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 134   @ Pacific L 60-66 41%     0 - 1 -1.8 -4.6 +2.4
  Dec 01, 2020 133   Washington W 57-42 48%     1 - 1 +17.4 -13.4 +31.3
  Dec 06, 2020 326   @ Denver W 83-63 87%     2 - 1 +9.6 +7.6 +2.9
  Dec 10, 2020 301   @ Northern Arizona W 74-50 80%     3 - 1 +17.0 +0.8 +18.0
  Jan 08, 2021 219   Hawaii L 83-88 77%     3 - 2 0 - 1 -10.8 -3.7 -6.6
  Jan 09, 2021 219   Hawaii W 70-68 77%     4 - 2 1 - 1 -3.8 -2.7 -0.9
  Jan 12, 2021 24   @ USC L 62-67 OT 11%     4 - 3 +10.3 +0.9 +9.2
  Jan 15, 2021 333   @ Cal Poly W 86-51 89%     5 - 3 2 - 1 +23.4 +9.2 +14.5
  Jan 16, 2021 333   @ Cal Poly W 70-53 89%     6 - 3 3 - 1 +5.4 -0.2 +7.4
  Jan 22, 2021 145   Cal St. Bakersfield L 45-47 60%     6 - 4 -2.7 -21.4 +18.5
  Jan 23, 2021 145   Cal St. Bakersfield W 60-57 63%    
  Feb 05, 2021 244   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 66-61 65%    
  Feb 06, 2021 244   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 12, 2021 105   UC Irvine L 61-62 52%    
  Feb 13, 2021 105   UC Irvine L 61-62 51%    
  Feb 19, 2021 255   @ UC San Diego W 62-56 67%    
  Feb 20, 2021 255   @ UC San Diego W 62-56 66%    
  Feb 26, 2021 89   UC Santa Barbara L 62-64 46%    
  Feb 27, 2021 89   UC Santa Barbara L 62-64 45%    
  Mar 05, 2021 297   @ Cal St. Northridge W 74-65 75%    
  Mar 06, 2021 297   @ Cal St. Northridge W 74-65 75%    
Projected Record 13 - 8 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.8 5.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.3 6.3 3.4 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 9.4 16.8 15.7 6.7 1.0 51.5 3rd
4th 0.8 4.9 6.4 3.5 0.3 15.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 3.6 1.3 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.7 10.8 17.3 21.1 19.4 13.8 7.1 1.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 1.8    1.1 0.7 0.1
12-4 38.5% 2.7    0.6 1.4 0.7
11-5 6.3% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 1.8 2.4 1.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 1.8% 43.1% 43.1% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.0
12-4 7.1% 29.9% 29.9% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 5.0
11-5 13.8% 24.2% 24.2% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 10.5
10-6 19.4% 17.6% 17.6% 14.3 0.5 1.5 1.2 0.2 16.0
9-7 21.1% 12.7% 12.7% 14.8 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.5 18.4
8-8 17.3% 11.5% 11.5% 15.2 0.3 1.0 0.7 15.3
7-9 10.8% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.3 0.5 10.0
6-10 5.7% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.4
5-11 2.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 2.2
4-12 0.6% 0.6
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.6 5.3 4.6 2.2 84.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 11.5 1.6 7.8 5.4 27.1 38.0 18.6 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%