UC San Diego
Big West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#240
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#234
Pace69.3#197
Improvement+0.5#151

Offense
Total Offense-8.0#328
First Shot-2.8#255
After Offensive Rebound-5.2#346
Layup/Dunks+0.5#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#109
Freethrows-5.4#345
Improvement-0.3#196

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#101
First Shot+4.3#58
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#265
Layups/Dunks-0.3#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#169
Freethrows+3.0#23
Improvement+0.8#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 16.3% 22.6% 5.5%
.500 or above in Conference 21.1% 28.6% 8.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 2.6% 13.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 32 - 8
Quad 44 - 26 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 09, 2021 105   UC Irvine L 65-79 23%     0 - 1 0 - 1 -11.3 -7.1 -3.8
  Jan 15, 2021 90   @ UC Santa Barbara L 52-69 11%     0 - 2 0 - 2 -8.9 -16.4 +7.0
  Jan 16, 2021 90   @ UC Santa Barbara L 53-84 11%     0 - 3 0 - 3 -22.9 -13.9 -10.8
  Jan 22, 2021 248   UC Davis W 89-69 58%     1 - 3 1 - 3 +12.8 +2.4 +8.4
  Jan 23, 2021 248   UC Davis W 72-70 63%    
  Jan 29, 2021 271   @ Long Beach St. L 71-72 44%    
  Jan 30, 2021 271   @ Long Beach St. L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 05, 2021 218   Hawaii W 69-68 57%    
  Feb 06, 2021 218   Hawaii W 69-68 57%    
  Feb 12, 2021 147   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 55-63 21%    
  Feb 13, 2021 147   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 55-63 21%    
  Feb 19, 2021 136   UC Riverside L 56-61 36%    
  Feb 20, 2021 136   UC Riverside L 56-61 35%    
  Feb 26, 2021 105   @ UC Irvine L 58-69 13%    
  Feb 27, 2021 105   @ UC Irvine L 58-69 13%    
  Mar 05, 2021 246   Cal St. Fullerton W 66-64 61%    
  Mar 06, 2021 246   Cal St. Fullerton W 66-64 61%    
Projected Record 6 - 11 6 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.9 4.3 4.5 1.9 0.4 11.9 3rd
4th 1.7 7.1 5.6 1.3 0.1 15.9 4th
5th 0.9 8.2 5.9 1.0 16.0 5th
6th 0.2 5.9 8.2 1.4 0.1 15.7 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 7.6 1.8 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.3 2.2 8.3 2.7 0.2 13.6 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 5.1 2.8 0.1 10.1 9th
10th 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.4 10th
Total 1.1 3.1 7.9 14.3 17.1 20.1 15.3 11.0 6.2 2.6 1.0 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 2.8% 0.0    0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.2% 0.2
11-5 1.0% 1.0
10-6 2.6% 2.6
9-7 6.2% 6.2
8-8 11.0% 11.0
7-9 15.3% 15.3
6-10 20.1% 20.1
5-11 17.1% 17.1
4-12 14.3% 14.3
3-13 7.9% 7.9
2-14 3.1% 3.1
1-15 1.1% 1.1
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%