UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#123
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#122
Pace65.0#286
Improvement-0.7#214

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#105
First Shot+5.5#47
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#307
Layup/Dunks+0.0#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#39
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#159
Freethrows+2.1#54
Improvement-1.9#293

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#156
First Shot+0.9#145
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#204
Layups/Dunks+3.7#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
Freethrows-2.5#306
Improvement+1.2#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.7% 29.6% 22.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 98.0% 99.2% 94.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.8% 97.6%
Conference Champion 50.2% 57.4% 30.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round27.5% 29.4% 22.5%
Second Round3.5% 4.0% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Away) - 72.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 35 - 26 - 7
Quad 410 - 117 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 07, 2020 134   Loyola Marymount W 69-58 60%     1 - 0 +11.5 +5.4 +7.0
  Dec 12, 2020 134   @ Loyola Marymount L 76-81 46%     1 - 1 -0.9 +8.2 -9.1
  Dec 19, 2020 131   @ Pepperdine W 75-63 45%     2 - 1 +16.3 +2.2 +14.0
  Dec 27, 2020 116   @ UC Irvine L 56-75 41%     2 - 2 0 - 1 -13.5 -14.1 +0.8
  Dec 28, 2020 116   @ UC Irvine L 69-73 41%     2 - 3 0 - 2 +1.5 +5.1 -3.9
  Jan 01, 2021 271   Cal St. Fullerton W 81-63 86%     3 - 3 1 - 2 +9.4 +4.5 +4.6
  Jan 02, 2021 271   Cal St. Fullerton W 65-61 86%     4 - 3 2 - 2 -4.6 -10.3 +5.7
  Jan 15, 2021 295   UC San Diego W 69-52 89%     5 - 3 3 - 2 +7.0 -0.7 +8.2
  Jan 16, 2021 295   UC San Diego W 84-53 89%     6 - 3 4 - 2 +21.0 +17.1 +5.7
  Jan 22, 2021 264   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-70 73%    
  Jan 23, 2021 264   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-70 72%    
  Jan 29, 2021 202   @ UC Davis W 76-72 61%    
  Jan 30, 2021 202   @ UC Davis W 76-72 60%    
  Feb 05, 2021 270   Long Beach St. W 82-70 88%    
  Feb 06, 2021 270   Long Beach St. W 82-70 88%    
  Feb 13, 2021 186   @ Hawaii W 75-71 59%    
  Feb 19, 2021 149   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-63 68%    
  Feb 20, 2021 149   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-63 68%    
  Feb 26, 2021 126   @ UC Riverside L 63-64 41%    
  Feb 27, 2021 126   @ UC Riverside L 63-64 41%    
  Mar 05, 2021 332   Cal Poly W 77-59 96%    
  Mar 06, 2021 332   Cal Poly W 77-59 96%    
Projected Record 15 - 7 12 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.8 5.3 13.6 16.3 10.9 3.2 50.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 6.0 12.6 9.6 3.5 0.5 33.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.1 2.4 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.9 0.0 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 6.2 12.8 20.3 23.3 19.7 11.5 3.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 3.2    3.1 0.2
14-2 95.3% 10.9    9.3 1.6
13-3 82.5% 16.3    11.6 4.6 0.0
12-4 58.5% 13.6    6.6 6.0 0.9 0.0
11-5 26.1% 5.3    1.4 2.6 1.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 5.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
Total 50.2% 50.2 32.1 15.3 2.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 3.2% 54.0% 50.8% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 6.5%
14-2 11.5% 44.0% 43.7% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.5 0.7 0.0 6.4 0.5%
13-3 19.7% 35.1% 35.1% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.8 3.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.8 0.0%
12-4 23.3% 28.8% 28.8% 13.8 0.2 2.2 3.1 1.1 0.1 16.6
11-5 20.3% 21.1% 21.1% 14.2 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.4 0.2 16.0
10-6 12.8% 16.1% 16.1% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 10.7
9-7 6.2% 11.4% 11.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 5.4
8-8 2.2% 8.8% 8.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0
7-9 0.7% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-10 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 27.7% 27.6% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 3.3 9.3 8.7 4.4 1.0 72.3 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 10.3 0.5 3.8 3.5 5.0 16.2 18.0 25.2 22.8 4.7 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 13.5% 11.9 0.4 3.3 6.9 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 7.8% 12.1 0.6 6.0 1.2