UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#217
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#267
Pace73.8#75
Improvement+0.6#122

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#193
First Shot+0.7#165
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#262
Layup/Dunks+1.6#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#52
Freethrows-3.1#323
Improvement+1.5#63

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#253
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#322
Layups/Dunks-5.6#319
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#61
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#36
Freethrows-0.8#227
Improvement-1.0#253
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 12.0% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 65.8% 68.8% 39.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.4% 83.2% 56.1%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four6.7% 6.7% 6.4%
First Round8.3% 8.6% 5.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Home) - 89.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 412 - 513 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 195   UNC Wilmington L 68-76 51%     0 - 1 -12.1 -11.0 -0.7
  Nov 28, 2020 184   Western Carolina L 81-83 OT 49%     0 - 2 -5.4 -7.2 +2.1
  Dec 05, 2020 345   South Carolina St. W 77-56 94%     1 - 2 +0.0 -9.5 +8.4
  Dec 12, 2020 274   High Point W 80-67 68%     2 - 2 1 - 0 +4.4 -0.3 +4.0
  Dec 13, 2020 274   High Point W 90-84 OT 68%     3 - 2 2 - 0 -2.6 +3.1 -6.4
  Dec 16, 2020 162   @ Chattanooga L 66-69 30%     3 - 3 -1.4 -5.9 +4.3
  Dec 22, 2020 79   @ Marshall L 67-88 13%     3 - 4 -12.3 -7.0 -3.7
  Dec 30, 2020 298   @ Longwood W 80-73 63%     4 - 4 3 - 0 +0.0 +7.1 -6.8
  Dec 31, 2020 298   @ Longwood L 55-65 63%     4 - 5 3 - 1 -17.0 -18.8 +1.3
  Jan 09, 2021 317   @ Hampton L 71-73 69%     4 - 6 3 - 2 -10.8 -11.4 +0.7
  Jan 10, 2021 317   @ Hampton W 85-77 69%     5 - 6 4 - 2 -0.8 +3.2 -4.4
  Jan 14, 2021 341   Charleston Southern W 92-54 86%     6 - 6 5 - 2 +22.4 +13.0 +9.0
  Jan 15, 2021 341   Charleston Southern W 76-64 90%    
  Jan 19, 2021 220   @ Gardner-Webb L 75-76 40%    
  Jan 20, 2021 220   @ Gardner-Webb L 75-76 40%    
  Jan 24, 2021 243   Radford W 70-67 66%    
  Jan 25, 2021 243   Radford W 70-67 66%    
  Feb 04, 2021 310   @ South Carolina Upstate W 76-72 61%    
  Feb 05, 2021 310   @ South Carolina Upstate W 76-72 61%    
  Feb 11, 2021 277   Campbell W 74-69 72%    
  Feb 12, 2021 277   Campbell W 74-69 72%    
  Feb 18, 2021 112   @ Winthrop L 79-88 16%    
  Feb 19, 2021 112   @ Winthrop L 79-88 16%    
Projected Record 12 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.4 1st
2nd 1.0 7.0 14.0 11.0 5.0 0.9 38.8 2nd
3rd 0.8 8.1 12.1 6.0 1.1 0.1 28.2 3rd
4th 0.2 4.3 8.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 5.4 1.2 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 1.4 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.1 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 5.6 11.9 18.8 21.8 20.3 12.3 5.6 1.4 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-5 39.1% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.0
14-6 9.5% 0.5    0.1 0.4 0.1
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.4 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 25.9% 25.9% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 1.4% 29.4% 29.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
14-6 5.6% 21.9% 21.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 4.4
13-7 12.3% 16.8% 16.8% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.4 10.2
12-8 20.3% 15.1% 15.1% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.6 17.3
11-9 21.8% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.1 2.4 19.3
10-10 18.8% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 1.4 17.3
9-11 11.9% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.7 11.2
8-12 5.6% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.3 5.4
7-13 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
6-14 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 9.2 88.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 13.4 18.6 23.3 55.8 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%
Lose Out 0.0%