UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#118
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#151
Pace70.6#162
Improvement+5.1#8

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#178
First Shot-4.1#279
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#17
Layup/Dunks-0.2#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#229
Freethrows-2.9#322
Improvement+2.9#30

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#71
First Shot+4.9#44
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#240
Layups/Dunks+0.2#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#80
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#14
Freethrows-2.5#304
Improvement+2.2#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.4% 18.5% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.8 13.4
.500 or above 96.8% 99.3% 93.6%
.500 or above in Conference 70.1% 83.3% 53.4%
Conference Champion 4.0% 6.2% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round16.3% 18.4% 13.7%
Second Round2.3% 2.8% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 55.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 4
Quad 35 - 47 - 8
Quad 48 - 215 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 156   Arkansas Little Rock W 77-70 62%     1 - 0 +7.4 +0.7 +6.6
  Dec 01, 2020 112   Winthrop L 67-75 48%     1 - 1 -3.8 -12.6 +9.8
  Dec 02, 2020 127   Duquesne L 68-81 54%     1 - 2 -10.3 -5.4 -4.2
  Dec 10, 2020 322   @ Coppin St. L 80-85 89%     1 - 3 -14.5 -7.3 -6.4
  Dec 13, 2020 248   Norfolk St. W 64-47 85%     2 - 3 +9.7 -10.9 +21.1
  Dec 15, 2020 316   South Carolina Upstate W 65-57 92%     3 - 3 -4.4 -15.6 +11.1
  Dec 19, 2020 246   @ Elon W 71-64 75%     4 - 3 +3.5 +0.1 +3.8
  Dec 22, 2020 314   @ N.C. A&T W 86-65 87%     5 - 3 +12.4 +0.5 +9.9
  Jan 02, 2021 138   East Tennessee St. L 61-71 63%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -9.9 -6.8 -3.5
  Jan 06, 2021 119   @ Wofford W 84-75 44%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +14.3 +13.6 +0.8
  Jan 09, 2021 119   Wofford L 45-48 58%     6 - 5 1 - 2 -1.4 -23.4 +21.7
  Jan 14, 2021 261   @ Samford W 87-63 78%     7 - 5 2 - 2 +19.7 +4.4 +13.4
  Jan 16, 2021 261   @ Samford W 82-70 78%     8 - 5 3 - 2 +7.7 +5.0 +2.5
  Jan 18, 2021 286   The Citadel W 87-73 89%     9 - 5 4 - 2 +4.5 +1.7 +2.4
  Jan 23, 2021 175   @ Chattanooga W 71-68 56%    
  Jan 25, 2021 88   @ Furman L 70-75 29%    
  Jan 30, 2021 212   VMI W 79-70 83%    
  Feb 10, 2021 88   Furman L 72-73 51%    
  Feb 13, 2021 145   @ Mercer W 73-72 47%    
  Feb 17, 2021 212   @ VMI W 77-72 64%    
  Feb 21, 2021 175   Chattanooga W 73-67 76%    
  Feb 24, 2021 198   Western Carolina W 77-69 80%    
  Feb 27, 2021 138   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-66 45%    
Projected Record 14 - 9 9 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.9 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.1 6.3 3.9 0.4 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 10.7 7.0 0.7 0.0 21.7 3rd
4th 0.1 3.1 12.9 9.5 1.1 0.0 26.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 8.7 6.9 0.7 17.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.6 4.9 0.5 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.1 8.9 17.1 23.6 23.1 15.4 6.7 1.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 67.6% 0.9    0.6 0.4 0.0
12-6 31.4% 2.1    0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1
11-7 5.8% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.4% 38.6% 34.6% 4.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 6.2%
12-6 6.7% 30.7% 30.1% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.7 0.9%
11-7 15.4% 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.8 0.0%
10-8 23.1% 18.5% 18.5% 13.1 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 18.8
9-9 23.6% 14.6% 14.6% 13.4 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 20.2
8-10 17.1% 10.6% 10.6% 13.9 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 15.3
7-11 8.9% 6.2% 6.2% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.3
6-12 3.1% 3.8% 3.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0
5-13 0.8% 5.1% 5.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.4% 16.3% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 3.4 7.3 3.8 1.0 0.1 83.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 10.1 1.3 2.5 10.4 20.8 23.8 22.1 14.6 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 9.4% 11.2 0.7 2.7 1.3 3.4 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 7.0% 11.6 1.5 1.5 2.5 1.5